159 Guayacan St · Cienegas Terrace, TX 78840

$105,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,010 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2007

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors Welcomed! This 4bd, 1 bath home is a true blank canvas, featuring an unfinished interior ready for completion. The space allows for flexible layout options, updated finishes, and modern upgrades. Whether you're renovating for resale or creating your own home, this property sits on an oversized lot and provides the foundation to bring your vision to life.

Key facts

• Oversized lot
• Built 2007
• Listed 79 days

Tags

• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT OPTIONS
• OVERSIZED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,065 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• San Felipe-Del Rio CISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #667 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 549 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Val Verde County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Val Verde County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.85%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $2,880
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $22,302
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78840

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,604 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,116/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,165

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $105,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-03-31
    listed $105,000 Active 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Investors Welcomed! This 4bd, 1 bath home is a true blank canvas, featuring an unfinished interior ready for completion. The space allows for flexible layout options, updated finishes, and modern upgrades. Whether you're renovating for resale or creating your own home, this property sits on an oversized lot and provides the foundation to bring your vision to life.

18. 2021-02-23
    soldstatus
19. 2004-05-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,116 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,116 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$3,116
• − Insurance: −$1,322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,539
• − Management: −$1,539
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $2,789
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$669
• After-tax cash flow: $3,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Felipe-Del Rio CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838900
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,582
• Composite: 24.04/100
• National rank: #7766
• State rank: #667 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cienegas Terrace

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1065
• US rank: #18905

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cienegas Terrace, TX
• County: Val Verde County · 47,256 people
• Metro: Del Rio, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,256
• Household income: $66,084
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1111.0

Population outlook (Val Verde County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,073 people
• By 2030: 47,468 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 45,930 · -4.5%
• By 2050: 43,904 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 38,126 · -20.7%
• By 2100: 26,217 · -45.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 24% White 15% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 63%

Political lean MEDSL · Val Verde

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.6) · D 36.2% · R 62.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: -26.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.6 2020: R+9.9 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.95%
• Current HPI: 161.762
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Del Rio, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $105,000 DRBORMLS
• 2021-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,116 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.