204 S Walnut St · Mount Carmel, PA 17851

$85,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 792 sqft · Other · 242 Days on market

Built 1923 435 sqft lot ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this fully remodeled half double. Main living area boasts hardwood floors. Granite countertop in the kitchen. Living room, dining room, and kitchen are open concept. Hidden door to the basement. The attic has been finished to allow space for another bedroom, office, gaming room, or whatever you'd like to use the space for.

Key facts

• Finished attic
• Open concept
• Hidden door

Tags

• REMODELED HALF DOUBLE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOP
• OPEN CONCEPT
• HIDDEN DOOR
• FINISHED ATTIC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Foundation: None listed
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: One three-quarter bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating present
• Interior features: Includes microwave, dishwasher, refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Basement (block foundation)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $604 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 12.2% in Mount Carmel — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#641 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, commute F, employment F.
• Mount Carmel Area SD (town): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #455 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.46%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $64,590
• Equity at exit: $55,118

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.70×
• Total profit: $159,460
• Equity at exit: $101,439

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17851

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $723/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $604

Break-even live

Break-even rent $685

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 W 4th St Mount Carmel, PA	3.0	1.5	900	$1,450	$1.61	43d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-12
   status $85,000 Pending 242 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 242 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 241 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 240 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 239 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 236 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 235 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 234 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 233 DOM
10. 2026-04-30
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2026-04-28
    price $85,000
12. 2026-04-07
    price $95,000
13. 2026-02-03
    status Active
14. 2025-10-17
    price $105,000
15. 2025-10-08
    listed $114,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $723 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,033 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$310/yr (+$26/mo · 42.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$723
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $6,234
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,496
• After-tax cash flow: $5,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Carmel Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215990
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $35,195
• Composite: 23.48/100
• National rank: #7876
• State rank: #455 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #641
• US rank: #6230

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Carmel, PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,174

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Current HPI: 127.4102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-25.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Contingent — CSVBR
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $85,000 CSVBR
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $95,000 CSVBR
• 2026-02-03 Relisted — CSVBR
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $105,000 CSVBR
• 2025-10-08 Listed $114,000 CSVBR

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $723 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.