8645 County Road 1143 · Leonard, TX 75423

$260,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · Manufactured public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2018 1.51 ac lot $119/sqft · 29% below area Est $368k · 29% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a spacious 1.5-acre tract in Celeste, Texas, this mobile home offers the perfect blend of comfort and country living. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, the home provides ample space for families of all sizes. Inside, you’ll find an inviting open-concept floor plan that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas—ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home also includes a generously sized utility room, adding convenience and extra storage space. Enjoy the peace and privacy of rural living while still being located within the highly regarded Leonard ISD. With plenty of room to roam, garden, or add additional improvements, this property offers endless possibilities. A great opportunity for those seeking space, functionality, and a quiet country setting—don’t miss out on making this one your own!

Key facts

• 1.51 acre lot
• Built 2018
• Listed 64 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-296 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.4% in Leonard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#867 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Leonard ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #347 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,604 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,313
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -29.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $122,820
• Equity at exit: $234,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $376,656
• Equity at exit: $505,123

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75423

• Home prices YoY: 31.3%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$393 /mo · $4,718/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,361

Max offer price $207,705

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $260,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $260,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $260,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $260,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $260,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $260,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $260,000 879-char remark

    Show marketing remark (879 chars)

    Situated on a spacious 1.5-acre tract in Celeste, Texas, this mobile home offers the perfect blend of comfort and country living. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, the home provides ample space for families of all sizes. Inside, you’ll find an inviting open-concept floor plan that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas—ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home also includes a generously sized utility room, adding convenience and extra storage space. Enjoy the peace and privacy of rural living while still being located within the highly regarded Leonard ISD. With plenty of room to roam, garden, or add additional improvements, this property offers endless possibilities. A great opportunity for those seeking space, functionality, and a quiet country setting—don’t miss out on making this one your own!

18. 2026-04-15
    listed $294,500 Active 879-char remark

    Show marketing remark (879 chars)

    Situated on a spacious 1.5-acre tract in Celeste, Texas, this mobile home offers the perfect blend of comfort and country living. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, the home provides ample space for families of all sizes. Inside, you’ll find an inviting open-concept floor plan that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas—ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home also includes a generously sized utility room, adding convenience and extra storage space. Enjoy the peace and privacy of rural living while still being located within the highly regarded Leonard ISD. With plenty of room to roam, garden, or add additional improvements, this property offers endless possibilities. A great opportunity for those seeking space, functionality, and a quiet country setting—don’t miss out on making this one your own!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,718 · $393/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,758 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$40/yr (+$3/mo · 0.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$4,718
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$8,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,950
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leonard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827210
• Math proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,822
• Composite: 35.69/100
• National rank: #4872
• State rank: #347 of 826 in TX

Livability — Leonard

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #867
• US rank: #15602

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,088

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 9% Native American 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 71.87%
• Current HPI: 301.3118
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $260,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $294,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+42.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,718 · +21.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.