6277 E Thunder River Dr · Tucson, AZ 85756

$229,950

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,496 sqft · Manufactured public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1999 0.29 ac lot $92/sqft · 10% below area Est $220k · at est. $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this spacious 4-bedroom manufactured home in a gated Tucson community! Enjoy a contemporary kitchen featuring new cabinets, linoleum flooring, laminate counters, and a brand-new stove. Major upgrades include a 2-year-old roof, solar panels, and a new HVAC system with a 10-year warranty. The home also boasts updated plumbing, a new water heater, a fresh 2-car garage door and newer carpet that is 3 years old. All appliances stay, including two refrigerators and a washer/dryer. with a low $52/mo HOA.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Contemporary kitchen
• New cabinets

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETS
• SOLAR PANELS
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• UPDATED PLUMBING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Sunnyside Unified District (4407) (urban): math 9% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #233 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $230k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,254 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.95%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,000
• List price: $229,950
• Delta: 4.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6137 E Window Ridge Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,432 (-3%)	17mo	$295,000	$121	72
6113 E Ship Rock Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	2,300 (-8%)	16mo	$282,500	$123	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-23,596
• Equity at exit: $34,286

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-11,730
• Equity at exit: $19,882

Cash invested: $64,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85756

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,189 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,318/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,853

Max offer price $229,950

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,488
• Closing costs: $6,898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6391 E Calle Hora Cero Tucson, AZ	4.0	3.0	2401	$2,150	$0.90	10d	1	0.20mi
6420 E Via Jardin Verde Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,100	$1.13	2d	1	0.27mi
6567 E Via Arroyo Azul Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1727	$1,800	$1.04	20d	1	0.36mi
7355 S Wilmot Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1687	$2,200	$1.30	16d	1	0.40mi
6889 S Harrier Loop Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,750	$1.07	24d	1	0.43mi
6638 E Via Jardin Verde Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,900	$1.19	44d	1	0.56mi
6680 E Via Jardin Verde Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.5	2384	$2,100	$0.88	17d	1	0.62mi
7448 S Camino Cardal Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	2167	$2,099	$0.97	15d	1	0.68mi
6809 S Camino de Azar Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1676	$1,695	$1.01	24d	1	0.73mi
6728 S Caminito Galano Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1930	$2,100	$1.09	3d	1	0.75mi
6665 E Via Olmeda Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1930	$2,250	$1.17	17d	1	0.75mi
7769 S Delia Stone Ct Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1904	$1,905	$1.00	2d	1	0.83mi
7453 S Via Plaza del Maya Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	44d	1	0.84mi
7399 S Via Plaza del Maya Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	2014	$1,995	$0.99	24d	1	0.86mi
7510 S Via Rancho La Costa Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.5	2384	$2,126	$0.89	24d	1	0.91mi
6555 E Brushback Loop Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1632	$1,895	$1.16	44d	1	1.21mi
7996 S Nautilus Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1598	$1,850	$1.16	24d	1	1.25mi
6642 E Bambino Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$1,895	$1.18	2d	1	1.30mi
8011 S Dolphin Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,900	$1.06	2d	1	1.31mi
5154 E Arguedas Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1849	$1,775	$0.96	44d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,950 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,950 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,950 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,950 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,950 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,950 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,950 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,950 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,950 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,950 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,950 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,950 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,950 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,950 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,950 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $229,950 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Discover this spacious 4-bedroom manufactured home in a gated Tucson community! Enjoy a contemporary kitchen featuring new cabinets, linoleum flooring, laminate counters, and a brand-new stove. Major upgrades include a 2-year-old roof, solar panels, and a new HVAC system with a 10-year warranty. The home also boasts updated plumbing, a new water heater, a fresh 2-car garage door and newer carpet that is 3 years old. All appliances stay, including two refrigerators and a washer/dryer. with a low $52/mo HOA.

17. 2026-04-14
    price $238,000 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Discover this spacious 4-bedroom manufactured home in a gated Tucson community! Enjoy a contemporary kitchen featuring new cabinets, linoleum flooring, laminate counters, and a brand-new stove. Major upgrades include a 2-year-old roof, solar panels, and a new HVAC system with a 10-year warranty. The home also boasts updated plumbing, a new water heater, a fresh 2-car garage door and newer carpet that is 3 years old. All appliances stay, including two refrigerators and a washer/dryer. with a low $52/mo HOA.

18. 2026-03-12
    listed $244,900 Active 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Discover this spacious 4-bedroom manufactured home in a gated Tucson community! Enjoy a contemporary kitchen featuring new cabinets, linoleum flooring, laminate counters, and a brand-new stove. Major upgrades include a 2-year-old roof, solar panels, and a new HVAC system with a 10-year warranty. The home also boasts updated plumbing, a new water heater, a fresh 2-car garage door and newer carpet that is 3 years old. All appliances stay, including two refrigerators and a washer/dryer. with a low $52/mo HOA.

19. 2016-08-19
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Large wonderful 4 bedroom home with all appliances including washer and dryer. Located in a great South East gated subdivision. With a 2 car garage, fully block wall fenced, landscaped with lots of trees. The home has a great country kitchen with sliding glass door onto a lovely patio, with outside storage, family room, 2 bathrooms ceiling fans. Utility room has a deep sink. This subdivision has side walks, street lights, community pool, and play area. Just a quick jump on to I-10. This home has an extra large lot. A must see.

20. 2016-07-14
    status Pending 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Large wonderful 4 bedroom home with all appliances including washer and dryer. Located in a great South East gated subdivision. With a 2 car garage, fully block wall fenced, landscaped with lots of trees. The home has a great country kitchen with sliding glass door onto a lovely patio, with outside storage, family room, 2 bathrooms ceiling fans. Utility room has a deep sink. This subdivision has side walks, street lights, community pool, and play area. Just a quick jump on to I-10. This home has an extra large lot. A must see.

21. 2016-07-08
    listed $113,900 Active 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Large wonderful 4 bedroom home with all appliances including washer and dryer. Located in a great South East gated subdivision. With a 2 car garage, fully block wall fenced, landscaped with lots of trees. The home has a great country kitchen with sliding glass door onto a lovely patio, with outside storage, family room, 2 bathrooms ceiling fans. Utility room has a deep sink. This subdivision has side walks, street lights, community pool, and play area. Just a quick jump on to I-10. This home has an extra large lot. A must see.

22. 2015-09-07
    historical Active Contingent
23. 2015-09-07
    historical
24. 2015-09-03
    listed $97,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,318 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,518 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$199/yr (+$17/mo · 15.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,881
• − Property taxes: −$1,318
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$6,689
• Taxable loss: −$598
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$143
• After-tax cash flow: $3,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sunnyside Unified District (4407)
• NCES district ID: 0408170
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $34,365
• Composite: 9.76/100
• National rank: #9827
• State rank: #233 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,700
• Household income: $72,490
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 23% Black 7% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 39% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.28%
• Current HPI: 304.0243
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+137.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $229,950 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $238,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-12 Listed $244,900 MLSSAZ
• 2016-08-19 Sold (MLS) $120,000 MLSSAZ
• 2016-07-14 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2016-07-08 Listed $113,900 MLSSAZ
• 2015-09-07 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2015-09-07 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2015-09-03 Listed $97,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,318 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.