705 Sidney St · Bay City, MI 48706

$169,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1950 0.43 ac lot Est $122k · 39% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don’t miss this well-maintained home on Bay City's desirable west side, set on an oversized 72x262 lot with a private inground pool--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Inside, you’ll find a warm and inviting living room featuring elegant coved ceilings, hardwood floors, and a well-designed layout. Downstairs, the partially finished basement adds valuable extra space for living, hobbies, and storage. The 1-car garage provides everyday convenience, while numerous updates within the past five years--including a new concrete driveway and patio, central A/C, water heater, basement windows, garbage disposal and faucet, gutter guards, and sump pump--offer peace of mind. Schedule you

Key facts

• New water heater
• Central a/c
• New concrete patio

Tags

• PRIVATE INGROUND POOL
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• NEW CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• NEW CONCRETE PATIO
• CENTRAL A/C
• NEW WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (2.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.6% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $170k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $166,307 (2.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.58%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $121,968
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
705 Sidney St	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,008 (0%)	0mo	$175,000	$174	98
1107 Moore St	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,024 (+2%)	4mo	$72,000	$70	74
202 Elm St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (+3%)	1mo	$72,000	$69	73
427 James St	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,088 (+8%)	3mo	$131,000	$120	70
1115 Litchfield St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,012 (+0%)	3mo	$122,000	$121	69
403 Bradley St	0.30mi	2/1.0	912 (-10%)	2mo	$80,000	$88	68
222 E Murphy St	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,156 (+15%)	3mo	$212,000	$183	65
402 State St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-1%)	3mo	$109,000	$109	62
118 AUSABLE STATE Rd	0.28mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,131 (+12%)	3mo	$155,000	$137	57
602 Transit St	0.58mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,056 (+5%)	1mo	$156,500	$148	57
1210 E Smith St	0.55mi	2/1.0	900 (-11%)	3mo	$115,000	$128	54
10 State Park Dr	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,124 (+12%)	3mo	$115,000	$102	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,478
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,291
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,663 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,572/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,383

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $317	-5% $269	+0% $221	+5% $173	+10% $125
Rent	-10% $90	-5% $155	+0% $221	+5% $287	+10% $352
Rate	-1.0pp $307	-0.5pp $264	base $221	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	44d	1	1.07mi
605 E Jane St Bay City, MI	1.0	1.0	754	$1,650	$2.19	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $169,900 Active
3. 2003-06-03
   soldstatus $95,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,572 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,094 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$522/yr (+$44/mo · 33.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,572
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,597
• − Management: −$1,597
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$118
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$28
• After-tax cash flow: $2,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+77.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $169,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $95,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,572 · -15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.