100 Lake Chelan Shores Dr Unit 15-8F · Chelan, WA 98816

$1,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Timeshare · 84 Days on market

Built 1995 $1/sqft · 43% below area Est $3k · 43% under $204/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfect Lake Chelan Shores Timeshare Condominium. This two bedroom with loft and three bathrooms lives large 1,368 sqft. When you enter the condo the natural light fills the space and welcomes you to your place at Lake Chelan. There are 3 weeks floating with this sale, this is a great opportunity to start your tradition at Lake Chelan Shores. Clubhouse, 5 pools, Hot tub, Fitness Center, Dock, Buoys, Watercraft Rentals, playground, horseshoes, volleyball, 5 tennis & Pickle-ball courts. * 2026 HOA Fee is $612.16 Quarterly or $2,448.64 for the 2025 year. * 2026 Weeks: * 3/13/-3/20/2026 * 7/3-7/10/2026 * 11/6-11/13/2026 * Property Taxes 2026 $30.87

Key facts

• Parking
• Community pool
• Built 1995

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath timeshare listed at $2k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $2k).
• Recommended offer: $1k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 1027.0% vs local median 0.5% in Chelan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in WA, #900 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Lake Chelan School District (town): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #161 of 291 in WA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 338 active listings in the ZIP; 762 units permitted in Chelan County in 2024 (377 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $45 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chelan County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $420 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($1k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,410 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 125.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 1026.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 3645.22%
• DSCR: 163.19
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,616
• List price: $1,500
• Delta: -42.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Lake Chelan Shores Dr Unit 14-5	0.07mi	3/3.0	1,542 (+13%)	2mo	$2,500	$2	73
100 Lake Chelan Shores Dr Unit 15-5B	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-6%)	9mo	$2,000	$2	73
100 Lake Chelan Shores Dr Unit 15-8J	0.07mi	3/3.0	1,542 (+13%)	11mo	$3,000	$2	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 194.26×
• Total profit: $81,169
• Equity at exit: $224

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 419.90×
• Total profit: $175,938
• Equity at exit: $130

Cash invested: $420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98816

• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,886 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2 /mo · $22/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $1,276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $271

Max offer price $1,500

Occupancy floor 27%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $375
• Closing costs: $45
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,500 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,500 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,500 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,500 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,500 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,500 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,500 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,500 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,500 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $1,500 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $3,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $3,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-03-26
    listed $3,000 Active
17. 2024-04-03
    soldstatus $4,250 Closed
18. 2024-02-27
    status Pending
19. 2023-10-04
    listed $4,250 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$84
• − Property taxes: −$22
• − Insurance: −$8
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,811
• − Management: −$1,811
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$44
• Taxable income: $16,408
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,938
• After-tax cash flow: $11,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Chelan School District
• NCES district ID: 5301200
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,402
• Composite: 42.95/100
• National rank: #6687
• State rank: #161 of 291 in WA

Livability — Chelan

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #900

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C+ Cost of living D- Crime B+ Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chelan, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,677

Population outlook (Chelan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,630 people
• By 2030: 84,312 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 88,619 · +8.6%
• By 2050: 91,915 · +12.6%
• By 2075: 99,409 · +21.8%
• By 2100: 100,032 · +22.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 34% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chelan

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.5) · D 43.9% · R 53.4% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -9.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.5 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+15.7 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -337.82%
• Current HPI: 172.2776
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-29.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $3,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-03 Sold (MLS) $4,250 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-04 Listed $4,250 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid