7015 Red Cedar · Brownsville, TX 78526

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,071 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2018 5,201 sqft lot Est $176k · 13% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Seller offering concessions toward buyer's closing cost acceptable offer.

Key facts

• 5,201 sq ft lot
• Built 2018

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; House; One-story home
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Gazebo on the property

Interior

• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Los Fresnos CISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #444 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Los Fresnos El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 561 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 43% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 413 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.36%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,644
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6633 Carolina Pne	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+12%)	8mo	$197,000	$164	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-19,766
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,330
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78526

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 413
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,022 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,222/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,766

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6992 Austrian Pne Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,900	$1.58	21d	1	0.08mi
6973 Austrian Pne Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1406	$1,800	$1.28	44d	1	0.09mi
6654 Pino Azul Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,900	$1.33	44d	1	0.39mi
7137 Calles Ave Olmito, TX	2.0	1.5	1025	$1,400	$1.37	14d	1	0.48mi
6919 Blue Spruce St Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,750	$1.21	44d	1	0.57mi
2373 Grove Ln Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,500	$1.70	21d	1	0.95mi
2161 Grove Ln Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$2,050	$1.78	44d	1	0.99mi
6283 Pecos River St Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	14d	1	1.14mi
6053 Blanco River St Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,550	$1.42	14d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $199,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-05-20
   price $199,000
9. 2026-05-14
   listed $215,000 Active
10. 2026-04-08
    soldstatus
11. 2021-03-12
    soldstatus
12. 2014-04-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,222 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$420/yr (+$35/mo · 13.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,222
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,941
• − Management: −$1,941
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$769
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$184
• After-tax cash flow: $2,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Fresnos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828290
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,586
• Composite: 32.92/100
• National rank: #5601
• State rank: #444 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 60,012
• Household income: $70,565
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1063.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 45% White 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 87%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 19% English-only · Spanish 79% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.28%
• Current HPI: 220.5233
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $199,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $215,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-04-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-04-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,222 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.