3204 Pond Hollow St · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1990 4,143 sqft lot $217/mo HOA · 12% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well kept home in the highly desirable Timber Lake Estates. Single-wide with a 1-car garage built in 1990. Home includes a generous enclosed patio along with a workshop all the DIY folks out there. Timber Lake is a resident owned, gated community that is not age-restricted. The very reasonable monthly HOA includes water, exterior maintenance along with 2 clubhouses with pools and a lake stocked with fish. The community holds many social events including bingo, line dancing and many more. Conveniently located near Publix, Home Depot and the newly opened State Rd 56 leading to Wiregrass Mall, Costco and the outlet

Key facts

• One car garage
• Florida room
• Spacious lot

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• LIGHT-FILLED LIVING AREA
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• FLORIDA ROOM
• ONE CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• Financial info: Total annual HOA fees $2,604; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Real manage); Monthly HOA fee $217; HOA covers common area taxes, pool, escrow/reserve fund, insurance, structure maintenance, grounds maintenance, management, private road, recreational facilities, security, sewer, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Association-provided security
• Utilities: Private water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Residential property, completed condition; One level; Home faces west
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built on a 0.03-acre lot
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Outdoor storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floor plan; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $150k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.59%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $439,712
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34125 Chancey Rd	0.34mi	2/1.0	720 (-1%)	12mo	$435,000	$604	68
34632 Sweetpea Ln	0.60mi	2/1.0	816 (+12%)	6mo	$70,000	$86	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-12,406
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-8,433
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,738 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $507/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$217
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,402

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	14d	1	0.28mi
34002 Painthorse Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,208	$2.16	2d	46	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr
• Likely covers: waterexterior maint.poolsecurity

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    listed $149,900 Active
15. 2022-11-17
    soldstatus $94,000
16. 2022-11-15
    soldstatus $94,000 Closed 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    Well kept home in the highly desirable Timber Lake Estates. Single-wide with a 1-car garage built in 1990. Home includes a generous enclosed patio along with a workshop all the DIY folks out there. Timber Lake is a resident owned, gated community that is not age-restricted. The very reasonable monthly HOA includes water, exterior maintenance along with 2 clubhouses with pools and a lake stocked with fish. The community holds many social events including bingo, line dancing and many more. Conveniently located near Publix, Home Depot and the newly opened State Rd 56 leading to Wiregrass Mall, Costco and the outlet

17. 2022-11-01
    status Pending 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    Well kept home in the highly desirable Timber Lake Estates. Single-wide with a 1-car garage built in 1990. Home includes a generous enclosed patio along with a workshop all the DIY folks out there. Timber Lake is a resident owned, gated community that is not age-restricted. The very reasonable monthly HOA includes water, exterior maintenance along with 2 clubhouses with pools and a lake stocked with fish. The community holds many social events including bingo, line dancing and many more. Conveniently located near Publix, Home Depot and the newly opened State Rd 56 leading to Wiregrass Mall, Costco and the outlet

18. 2022-10-25
    listed $94,900 Active 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    Well kept home in the highly desirable Timber Lake Estates. Single-wide with a 1-car garage built in 1990. Home includes a generous enclosed patio along with a workshop all the DIY folks out there. Timber Lake is a resident owned, gated community that is not age-restricted. The very reasonable monthly HOA includes water, exterior maintenance along with 2 clubhouses with pools and a lake stocked with fish. The community holds many social events including bingo, line dancing and many more. Conveniently located near Publix, Home Depot and the newly opened State Rd 56 leading to Wiregrass Mall, Costco and the outlet

19. 1996-01-03
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $507 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$737/yr (+$61/mo · 145.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$507
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,669
• − Management: −$1,669
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $904
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$217
• After-tax cash flow: $2,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+499.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-15 Sold (MLS) $94,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-25 Listed $94,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $507 · -25.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.