14260 N 3rd · Grays Prairie, TX 75158

$189,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 260 Days on market

Built 1995 0.99 ac lot $132/sqft · 38% below area Est $305k · 38% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with 1,440 sq. ft. of living space on a full acre in the sought-after Scurry-Rosser ISD. This home features an open floor plan with plenty of natural light, a spacious primary suite, and two additional bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, enjoy wide-open space with room for kids, pets, a garden, or future projects. Located in a country setting with access to excellent schools, this property is the perfect blend of comfort, space, and community.

Key facts

• 0.99 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1995

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#793 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Scurry-Rosser ISD (rural): math 51% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #172 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 47% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.49%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,813
• List price: $189,999
• Delta: -37.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-15,240
• Equity at exit: $28,329

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,845
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75158

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,979 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,933/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,671

Max offer price $189,999

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,999 Active 260 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,999 Active 259 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,999 Active 258 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,999 Active 257 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,999 Active 255 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,999 Active 254 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,999 Active 251 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,999 Active 250 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,999 Active 249 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,999 Active 246 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,999 Active 245 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,999 Active 244 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,999 Active 243 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,999 Active 242 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    price $189,999 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with 1,440 sq. ft. of living space on a full acre in the sought-after Scurry-Rosser ISD. This home features an open floor plan with plenty of natural light, a spacious primary suite, and two additional bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, enjoy wide-open space with room for kids, pets, a garden, or future projects. Located in a country setting with access to excellent schools, this property is the perfect blend of comfort, space, and community.

16. 2026-02-24
    price $199,999 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with 1,440 sq. ft. of living space on a full acre in the sought-after Scurry-Rosser ISD. This home features an open floor plan with plenty of natural light, a spacious primary suite, and two additional bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, enjoy wide-open space with room for kids, pets, a garden, or future projects. Located in a country setting with access to excellent schools, this property is the perfect blend of comfort, space, and community.

17. 2026-01-12
    price $209,999 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with 1,440 sq. ft. of living space on a full acre in the sought-after Scurry-Rosser ISD. This home features an open floor plan with plenty of natural light, a spacious primary suite, and two additional bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, enjoy wide-open space with room for kids, pets, a garden, or future projects. Located in a country setting with access to excellent schools, this property is the perfect blend of comfort, space, and community.

18. 2025-11-25
    price $219,999 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with 1,440 sq. ft. of living space on a full acre in the sought-after Scurry-Rosser ISD. This home features an open floor plan with plenty of natural light, a spacious primary suite, and two additional bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, enjoy wide-open space with room for kids, pets, a garden, or future projects. Located in a country setting with access to excellent schools, this property is the perfect blend of comfort, space, and community.

19. 2025-10-22
    price $225,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with 1,440 sq. ft. of living space on a full acre in the sought-after Scurry-Rosser ISD. This home features an open floor plan with plenty of natural light, a spacious primary suite, and two additional bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, enjoy wide-open space with room for kids, pets, a garden, or future projects. Located in a country setting with access to excellent schools, this property is the perfect blend of comfort, space, and community.

20. 2025-10-01
    listed $235,000 Active 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with 1,440 sq. ft. of living space on a full acre in the sought-after Scurry-Rosser ISD. This home features an open floor plan with plenty of natural light, a spacious primary suite, and two additional bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, enjoy wide-open space with room for kids, pets, a garden, or future projects. Located in a country setting with access to excellent schools, this property is the perfect blend of comfort, space, and community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,933 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$544/yr (+$45/mo · 18.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 47% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,750
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,933
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,900
• − Management: −$1,900
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$103
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$25
• After-tax cash flow: $2,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scurry-Rosser ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839570
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,837
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3047
• State rank: #172 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grays Prairie

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #793
• US rank: #14463

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,168

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.37%
• Current HPI: 269.5786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $189,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $199,999 NTREIS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $209,999 NTREIS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $219,999 NTREIS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $235,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,933 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.