42213 Blue Bay Dr · Hammond, LA 70454

$269,115

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,833 sqft · SingleFamily · 64 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 7,840 sqft lot $147/sqft · 7% below area Est $289k · 7% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* 2/1 buydown with rate as low as 3.99% for the first 12 months. Contact Builder Sales Rep(s) for current incentive details. * BACKS TO POND! The YARDLEY III A has an open floor plan with 4 bedrooms & 2.5 bathrooms. This home includes upgraded cabinets, quartz counters, stainless appliances with a gas range, undermount cabinet lighting, culinary brushed gold kitchen faucet & more. Special features: kitchen island, under-mount sinks throughout, luxury vinyl plank flooring added in living room & all wet areas, custom framed mirrors in all bathrooms, large walk-in closet, garden tub & separate shower in primary suite, smart connect Wi-Fi thermostat, gas tank-less water heater, radiant barrier roof decking, low E tilt-in windows, fully sodded yard with seasonal landscaping & so much more!

Key facts

• Backs to pond
• Under-mount sinks
• Kitchen island

Tags

• BACKS TO POND
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• UNDER-MOUNT SINKS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• CUSTOM FRAMED MIRRORS
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $269k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#77 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute D+, schools D.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 526 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,517 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,523
• List price: $269,115
• Delta: -6.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26092 Salt Grass Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,833 (0%)	1mo	$269,235	$147	94
42143 Blue Bay Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,887 (+3%)	1mo	$274,800	$146	86
42521 Blue Bay Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,887 (+3%)	2mo	$271,015	$144	83
42242 Blue Bay Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,887 (+3%)	9mo	$270,150	$143	80
42318 Blue Bay Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,887 (+3%)	1mo	$271,354	$144	79
42362 Blue Bay Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,887 (+3%)	8mo	$270,150	$143	73
42416 Blue Bay Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,072 (+13%)	3mo	$279,980	$135	70
42282 Blue Bay Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,072 (+13%)	3mo	$283,715	$137	69
42114 Dothan Pl	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,820 (-1%)	1mo	$260,000	$143	64
42308 Blue Bay Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,072 (+13%)	9mo	$286,445	$138	62
42159 Delacer Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,685 (-8%)	7mo	$264,000	$157	50
42195 Millbrook Way	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (-13%)	0mo	$234,400	$147	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-54,108
• Equity at exit: $40,126

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-74,261
• Equity at exit: $23,268

Cash invested: $75,352 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70454

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,037/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,381

Max offer price $257,046

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,279
• Closing costs: $8,073
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
42290 Blue Bay Dr Ponchatoula, LA	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,150	$1.16	43d	1	0.11mi
26122 Trinity Ln Ponchatoula, LA	4.0	3.0	2175	$2,500	$1.15	43d	1	0.22mi
42293 Atmore Pl Ponchatoula, LA	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,150	$1.18	43d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: watergasinternetlandscaping

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $269,115 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,115 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,115 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,115 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,115 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,115 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,115 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,115 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,115 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,115 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,115 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,115 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,115 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,115 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,115 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,115 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,115 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-04-17
    listed $269,115 Active 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    * 2/1 buydown with rate as low as 3.99% for the first 12 months. Contact Builder Sales Rep(s) for current incentive details. * BACKS TO POND! The YARDLEY III A has an open floor plan with 4 bedrooms & 2.5 bathrooms. This home includes upgraded cabinets, quartz counters, stainless appliances with a gas range, undermount cabinet lighting, culinary brushed gold kitchen faucet & more. Special features: kitchen island, under-mount sinks throughout, luxury vinyl plank flooring added in living room & all wet areas, custom framed mirrors in all bathrooms, large walk-in closet, garden tub & separate shower in primary suite, smart connect Wi-Fi thermostat, gas tank-less water heater, radiant barrier roof decking, low E tilt-in windows, fully sodded yard with seasonal landscaping & so much more!

19. 2026-04-16
    listed $269,115 Active 852-char remark

    Show marketing remark (852 chars)

    Awesome builder rate + FREE front gutters OR window blinds(restrictions apply)! BACKS TO POND! Brand NEW Construction built by DSLD HOMES in The Estates at Silver Hill! The YARDLEY III A has an open floor plan with 4 bedrooms & 2.5 bathrooms. This home includes upgraded cabinets, quartz counters, stainless appliances with a gas range, undermount cabinet lighting, culinary brushed gold kitchen faucet & more. Special features: kitchen island, under-mount sinks throughout, luxury vinyl plank flooring added in living room & all wet areas, custom framed mirrors in all bathrooms, large walk-in closet, garden tub & separate shower in primary suite, smart connect Wi-Fi thermostat, gas tank-less water heater, radiant barrier roof decking, low E tilt-in windows, fully sodded yard with seasonal landscaping & so much more!

20. 2026-04-16
    listed $269,115 Active 852-char remark

    Show marketing remark (852 chars)

    Awesome builder rate + FREE front gutters OR window blinds(restrictions apply)! BACKS TO POND! Brand NEW Construction built by DSLD HOMES in The Estates at Silver Hill! The YARDLEY III A has an open floor plan with 4 bedrooms & 2.5 bathrooms. This home includes upgraded cabinets, quartz counters, stainless appliances with a gas range, undermount cabinet lighting, culinary brushed gold kitchen faucet & more. Special features: kitchen island, under-mount sinks throughout, luxury vinyl plank flooring added in living room & all wet areas, custom framed mirrors in all bathrooms, large walk-in closet, garden tub & separate shower in primary suite, smart connect Wi-Fi thermostat, gas tank-less water heater, radiant barrier roof decking, low E tilt-in windows, fully sodded yard with seasonal landscaping & so much more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,075
• − Property taxes: −$4,037
• − Insurance: −$1,346
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,184
• − Management: −$2,184
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$7,829
• Taxable loss: −$5,604
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,345
• After-tax cash flow: $344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is a brand-new construction with excellent condition and features. It is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale New flooring in bedrooms — Improves living space and adds value
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bedrooms — Improves living space and adds value ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Hammond

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #8868

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tangipahoa Parish · 85,958 people
• City population: 51,394
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• Population (ZIP): 34,564
• Household income: $71,611
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 479.0

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.55%
• Current HPI: 129.6069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $269,115 Zillow
• 2026-04-16 Listed $269,115 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $269,115 GSREIN