212 Sunset Dr · Lake Alfred, FL 33850

$109,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1972 4,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Price greatly reduced. .. No lot rent or HOA fees. Clean 2/1 in Lake Alfred ready for your next project or rental. Features a durable metal roof, luxury vinyl floors, and a private carport. Owner financing is on the table! Excellent location near Lake Mariana boat ramps perfect for attracting long-term tenants or vacationing anglers. No lease restrictions provide maximum flexibility for your investment strategy. Property has rented for $1200 monthly in the past. Act fast on this low-carry-cost opportunity in a prime central Florida location. All sizes are approximate to be verified by buyer.

Key facts

• Carport
• Public boat ramps
• Welcoming porch

Tags

• PUBLIC BOAT RAMPS
• CARPORT
• WELCOMING PORCH
• BUILT INS FOR STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.1 acre (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Fixer condition; Home faces south; Entry level: One
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace and slab foundation (other foundation type listed); Built area approximately 1,000–1,200 square feet
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combined; Solid surface counters; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $109k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,190 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.04%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $9,951
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $44,249
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33850

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,476 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,385/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $927

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $109,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $119,000
17. 2026-04-09
    price $50,000
18. 2026-03-15
    listed $129,000 Active
19. 2007-05-07
    soldstatus $42,000
20. 2003-10-09
    soldstatus $26,500
21. 2001-09-10
    soldstatus $25,000
22. 1996-10-07
    soldstatus $21,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,385 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,385 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,385
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $3,669
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$881
• After-tax cash flow: $4,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,757
• Household income: $61,622
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 11% Asian 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.91%
• Current HPI: 353.941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+453.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-15 Listed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $26,500 Public Records
• 2001-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1996-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $21,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,385 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.