5043 27th St · Lubbock, TX 79407

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · Townhouse public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1976 3,190 sqft lot $87/sqft · 29% below area Est $162k · 29% under $50/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity or owner occupant! This property needs some love, and has 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, 2 car carport in the rear, and park/community pool down the street, this home has a ton for the price! It has been well taken care of, just needs a quick freshening up, and would make a great investment. Take a look at this one ASAP! Photos are from past listing

Key facts

• 3,190 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $600 annual fee (approximately $50/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces); Garage faces side; Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public maintained road access; City street frontage
• Home design: Single-family residence; Attached property with 2+ common walls; One-story
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private entrance; Private yard; Fenced backyard with wood fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window coverings; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Separate laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mackenzie Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 515 students, 88% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.61%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,988
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -29.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-11,224
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-10,244
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,356 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,311/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,131

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $243	-5% $210	+0% $177	+5% $145	+10% $112
Rent	-10% $70	-5% $124	+0% $177	+5% $231	+10% $285
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $207	base $177	+0.5pp $148	+1.0pp $117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2409 Utica Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1693	$1,400	$0.83	22d	1	0.42mi
5024 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,300	$0.95	22d	1	0.44mi
5003 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,550	$1.03	14d	1	0.50mi
5407 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,150	$0.95	14d	1	0.51mi
4702 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,450	$0.91	44d	1	0.57mi
5402 22nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1234	$1,050	$0.85	44d	1	0.58mi
4907 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,095	$1.07	14d	1	0.59mi
4818 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	22d	1	0.60mi
3333 Toledo Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	924	$741	$0.80	14d	7	0.64mi
4907 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	44d	1	0.65mi
5304 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	44d	1	0.65mi
5214 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	44d	1	0.65mi
5306 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	44d	1	0.66mi
4801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,275	$0.90	22d	1	0.67mi
5406 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$695	$0.50	44d	1	0.70mi
5318 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,375	$0.79	14d	1	0.74mi
5416 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,295	$0.94	44d	1	0.75mi
4601 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	928	$995	$1.07	14d	1	0.76mi
4423 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,600	$1.26	22d	1	0.77mi
4702 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	14d	1	0.77mi
4606 35th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	44d	1	0.78mi
4425 31st St Unit Fs Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$899	$0.90	22d	1	0.78mi
4430 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,100	$0.78	44d	1	0.79mi
4423 31st St Unit 1 FS Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1024	$885	$0.86	22d	1	0.80mi
4428 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1685	$1,375	$0.82	44d	1	0.80mi
5220 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,400	$0.91	22d	1	0.84mi
4817 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,300	$1.04	14d	1	0.84mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	44d	1	0.87mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	22d	1	0.87mi
5221 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,450	$0.98	14d	1	0.87mi
4907 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.88mi
4407 31st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$899	$0.90	22d	1	0.89mi
5604 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,400	$0.97	22d	1	0.89mi
4814 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,795	$1.10	14d	1	0.95mi
5433 40th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	978	$800	$0.82	44d	1	0.95mi
5216 15th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$1,695	$0.92	44d	1	0.96mi
3705 Elkhart Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1507	$1,650	$1.09	22d	1	0.97mi
5519 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,200	$0.95	44d	1	0.98mi
5519 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,200	$0.95	22d	1	0.98mi
5415 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,450	$1.02	22d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $115,000 Active 373-char remark
2. 2025-04-07
   soldstatus $925,000
3. 2024-05-23
   price $140,000
4. 2012-04-16
   soldstatus
5. 2006-08-25
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,311 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,311 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,311
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,302
• − Management: −$1,302
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $393
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$94
• After-tax cash flow: $2,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $115,000 LARMLS
• 2025-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $925,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-23 Price Changed $140,000 LARMLS
• 2012-04-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,311 · -6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.