10723 Verdant Hl · Sienna, TX 77459

$424,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,524 sqft · Land · 176 Days on market

Built 2025 6,843 sqft lot $168/sqft · 20% below area Est $528k · 20% under $124/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 29181291 - Built by Toll Brothers - Ready Now! ~ The Amneris wonderfully blends charm with sophistication starting with its extended foyer with tray ceilings opening onto the beautiful open-concept great room and casual dining area, with desirable access to a large covered patio beyond. Adjacent to a versatile flex room with vaulted ceiling, the kitchen is a chef's dream that features a stately central island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and a walk-in pantry. The elegant primary bedroom suite is hidden off the great room and complimented by a lovely tray ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and a deluxe primary bath that includes a dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower with seat, and a private water closet. Conveniently located off the foyer, sizable secondary bedrooms are feature roomy closets and a shared hall bath. The Amneris also features a convenient powder room and everyday entry, centrally located laundry, and plenty of additional storage.

Key facts

• 6,843 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $424k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-561 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (37.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,819 (37.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.68%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $528,139
• List price: $424,000
• Delta: -19.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-88,171
• Equity at exit: $88,925

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-131,330
• Equity at exit: $82,366

Cash invested: $118,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,638 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,224
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,458/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$124
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,349

Max offer price $324,812

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-321	-5% $-441	+0% $-561	+5% $-681	+10% $-801
Rent	-10% $-770	-5% $-666	+0% $-561	+5% $-457	+10% $-353
Rate	-1.0pp $-348	-0.5pp $-454	base $-561	+0.5pp $-671	+1.0pp $-783

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,000
• Closing costs: $12,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	46d	1	0.64mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $124 · $1,488/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   MLS# 29181291 - Built by Toll Brothers - Ready Now! ~ The Amneris wonderfully blends charm with sophistication starting with its extended foyer with tray ceilings opening onto the beautiful open-concept great room and casual dining area, with desirable access to a large covered patio beyond. Adjacent to a versatile flex room with vaulted ceiling, the kitchen is a chef's dream that features a stately central island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and a walk-in pantry. The elegant primary bedroom suite is hidden off the great room and complimented by a lovely tray ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and a deluxe primary bath that includes a dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower with seat, and a private water closet. Conveniently located off the foyer, sizable secondary bedrooms are feature roomy closets and a shared hall bath. The Amneris also features a convenient powder room and everyday entry, centrally located laundry, and plenty of additional storage.

2. 2026-05-05
   price $424,000 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   MLS# 29181291 - Built by Toll Brothers - Ready Now! ~ The Amneris wonderfully blends charm with sophistication starting with its extended foyer with tray ceilings opening onto the beautiful open-concept great room and casual dining area, with desirable access to a large covered patio beyond. Adjacent to a versatile flex room with vaulted ceiling, the kitchen is a chef's dream that features a stately central island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and a walk-in pantry. The elegant primary bedroom suite is hidden off the great room and complimented by a lovely tray ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and a deluxe primary bath that includes a dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower with seat, and a private water closet. Conveniently located off the foyer, sizable secondary bedrooms are feature roomy closets and a shared hall bath. The Amneris also features a convenient powder room and everyday entry, centrally located laundry, and plenty of additional storage.

3. 2026-04-07
   price $450,000 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   MLS# 29181291 - Built by Toll Brothers - Ready Now! ~ The Amneris wonderfully blends charm with sophistication starting with its extended foyer with tray ceilings opening onto the beautiful open-concept great room and casual dining area, with desirable access to a large covered patio beyond. Adjacent to a versatile flex room with vaulted ceiling, the kitchen is a chef's dream that features a stately central island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and a walk-in pantry. The elegant primary bedroom suite is hidden off the great room and complimented by a lovely tray ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and a deluxe primary bath that includes a dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower with seat, and a private water closet. Conveniently located off the foyer, sizable secondary bedrooms are feature roomy closets and a shared hall bath. The Amneris also features a convenient powder room and everyday entry, centrally located laundry, and plenty of additional storage.

4. 2026-02-06
   price $479,000 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   MLS# 29181291 - Built by Toll Brothers - Ready Now! ~ The Amneris wonderfully blends charm with sophistication starting with its extended foyer with tray ceilings opening onto the beautiful open-concept great room and casual dining area, with desirable access to a large covered patio beyond. Adjacent to a versatile flex room with vaulted ceiling, the kitchen is a chef's dream that features a stately central island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and a walk-in pantry. The elegant primary bedroom suite is hidden off the great room and complimented by a lovely tray ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and a deluxe primary bath that includes a dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower with seat, and a private water closet. Conveniently located off the foyer, sizable secondary bedrooms are feature roomy closets and a shared hall bath. The Amneris also features a convenient powder room and everyday entry, centrally located laundry, and plenty of additional storage.

5. 2025-12-11
   price $514,000 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   MLS# 29181291 - Built by Toll Brothers - Ready Now! ~ The Amneris wonderfully blends charm with sophistication starting with its extended foyer with tray ceilings opening onto the beautiful open-concept great room and casual dining area, with desirable access to a large covered patio beyond. Adjacent to a versatile flex room with vaulted ceiling, the kitchen is a chef's dream that features a stately central island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and a walk-in pantry. The elegant primary bedroom suite is hidden off the great room and complimented by a lovely tray ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and a deluxe primary bath that includes a dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower with seat, and a private water closet. Conveniently located off the foyer, sizable secondary bedrooms are feature roomy closets and a shared hall bath. The Amneris also features a convenient powder room and everyday entry, centrally located laundry, and plenty of additional storage.

6. 2025-11-18
   listed $524,000 Active 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   MLS# 29181291 - Built by Toll Brothers - Ready Now! ~ The Amneris wonderfully blends charm with sophistication starting with its extended foyer with tray ceilings opening onto the beautiful open-concept great room and casual dining area, with desirable access to a large covered patio beyond. Adjacent to a versatile flex room with vaulted ceiling, the kitchen is a chef's dream that features a stately central island with breakfast bar, plenty of counter and cabinet space, and a walk-in pantry. The elegant primary bedroom suite is hidden off the great room and complimented by a lovely tray ceiling, dual walk-in closets, and a deluxe primary bath that includes a dual-sink vanity, large soaking tub, luxe shower with seat, and a private water closet. Conveniently located off the foyer, sizable secondary bedrooms are feature roomy closets and a shared hall bath. The Amneris also features a convenient powder room and everyday entry, centrally located laundry, and plenty of additional storage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,458 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,759 · $647/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,301/yr (+$525/mo · 432.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,751
• − Property taxes: −$1,458
• − Insurance: −$2,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,533
• − Management: −$2,533
• − HOA: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$12,335
• Taxable loss: −$14,558
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,494
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $424,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $450,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $479,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $514,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $524,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,458 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.