77137 Cobblestone Dr · Jacksonville, FL 32097

$415,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,919 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2011 8,276 sqft lot Est $370k · 12% over $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning pool home alert! Feast your eyes on this adorable Timbercreek beauty with a newer SALTWATER POOL complete with a large pavered patio, fully fenced backyard, and all the oasis vibes you can handle. This open concept floor plan boasts wood look flooring throughout, tons of windows and natural light, a massive family room and the perfect office/library space with custom entry design that will have you head over heels in love. Spacious kitchen offers plenty of cabinet storage, brushed nickel hardware, walk-in pantry, and everyone's favorite window over the kitchen sink. Large dining room space is perfect for your farmhouse table and all your HGTV goals to come to life! Split bedrooms offer your master tucked away for privacy, complete with oversized walk in closet and custom built-ins built-ins

Key facts

• Massive family room
• Large paver patio
• 8,276 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACK YARD
• LARGE PAVER PATIO
• BACKYARD VIEW OF POOL
• NEWER KITCHENAID APPLIANCES
• WOOD LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• MASSIVE FAMILY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with semi-annual fee of $270.50; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Private in-ground saltwater pool (fenced); Wood backyard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Plumbed for ice maker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (heat pump); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Split bedrooms; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-782 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (33.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (40.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (40.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,191 (40.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.08%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $370,367
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
65656 Edgewater Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,812 (-6%)	3mo	$374,900	$207	72
70414 Winding River Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,036 (+6%)	3mo	$387,000	$190	65
65062 Mossy Creek Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,874 (-2%)	3mo	$299,000	$160	65
65554 Bowfin Spring Ct	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,043 (+6%)	2mo	$400,000	$196	62
65394 River Glen Pkwy	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,711 (-11%)	1mo	$348,000	$203	61
65138 Forest Glen Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (-3%)	2mo	$330,000	$178	57
75599 Bridgewater Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (-3%)	5mo	$330,000	$178	57
70013 Misty Lake Ct	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,705 (-11%)	2mo	$329,000	$193	54
75394 Bridgewater Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,129 (+11%)	5mo	$355,000	$167	54
65570 Bowfin Spring Ct	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,132 (+11%)	5mo	$439,900	$206	54
65114 Forest Glen Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,711 (-11%)	2mo	$332,000	$194	49
65506 River Glen Pkwy	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,160 (+13%)	3mo	$400,000	$185	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $175,864
• Equity at exit: $373,865

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $556,363
• Equity at exit: $806,254

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,462 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax from tax record: −$333 /mo · $3,993/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-782

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,452

Max offer price $276,847

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-547	-5% $-665	+0% $-782	+5% $-900	+10% $-1,017
Rent	-10% $-977	-5% $-879	+0% $-782	+5% $-685	+10% $-588
Rate	-1.0pp $-573	-0.5pp $-677	base $-782	+0.5pp $-890	+1.0pp $-999

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
75075 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,399	$1.29	6d	1	0.17mi
70305 Winding River Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	3.0	2042	$2,500	$1.22	25d	1	0.21mi
75045 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1685	$2,310	$1.37	22d	1	0.24mi
75008 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,300	$1.24	25d	1	0.28mi
65303 River Glen Pkwy Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2160	$2,400	$1.11	25d	1	0.31mi
65343 River Glen Pkwy Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$2,195	$1.28	25d	1	0.34mi
75346 Bridgewater Dr Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,300	$1.34	25d	1	0.36mi
75094 Glenspring Way Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	2055	$2,500	$1.22	25d	1	0.42mi
75094 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2193	$2,530	$1.15	0d	1	0.56mi
65013 Lagoon Forest Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,800	$1.25	12d	1	0.64mi
74700 Mills Preserve Cir Yulee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1127	$2,025	$1.80	25d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   price $415,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $425,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $425,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 671-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $425,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,993 · $333/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,993 · $333/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$3,993
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,363
• − Management: −$2,363
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$17,111
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,107
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-77.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $425,000 realMLS
• 2022-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $370,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-18 Sold (MLS) $370,000 AINCAR
• 2022-02-18 Sold (MLS) $370,000 realMLS
• 2021-12-29 Pending — realMLS
• 2021-12-23 Price Changed $405,000 realMLS
• 2021-12-16 Price Changed $425,000 realMLS
• 2021-12-10 Listed $405,000 AINCAR
• 2021-12-10 Listed $450,000 realMLS
• 2017-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $181,000 Public Records
• 2011-12-01 Sold (MLS) $146,990 realMLS
• 2011-09-12 Listed $148,990 realMLS
• 2011-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,920,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,993 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.