100 Thomas Paine Dr · Venus, TX 76084

$363,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,189 sqft · Land · 106 Days on market

Built 2025 7,671 sqft lot $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This phenomenal four-bedroom home is sure to be the talk of the town with its spacious layout, upgraded finishes, and stunning exterior design. Featuring four large bedrooms, including a main floor master suite, two-and-a-half bathrooms, an expansive family room, and a beautifully upgraded kitchen, this home offers the perfect blend of style and functionality. The chef-ready kitchen is equipped with Whirlpool® appliances, designer wood cabinetry, granite countertops, flush mount LED lighting, and a convenient USB outlet. The private master suite is filled with natural light and includes a bathroom with a soaking tub, separate shower, and large walk-in closet for a spa-like experience. Additional high-tech features include a Wi-Fi-enabled garage door opener, programmable thermostat, and energy-efficient double-pane Low-E vinyl windows. Ideally located right down the road from the neighborhood playground, gazebo, and private community splashpad, this home offers everyday comfort and convenience. Homeowners at Patriot Estates also enjoy world-class community amenities and close proximity to major employers, excellent schools, shopping, dining, and more.

Key facts

• Whirlpool appliances
• Granite countertops
• Chef ready kitchen

Tags

• MAIN FLOOR MASTER SUITE
• CHEF READY KITCHEN
• WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCES
• DESIGNER WOOD CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FLUSH MOUNT LED LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $364k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (32.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($331k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $245,476 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.75%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $117,702
• Equity at exit: $259,832

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $349,313
• Equity at exit: $500,660

Cash invested: $101,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,455 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,908
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $915/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,751

Max offer price $322,578

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,975
• Closing costs: $10,917
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
313 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	7d	1	0.12mi
315 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,515	$1.16	2d	1	0.13mi
201 John Laurens Dr Venus, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1975	$2,535	$1.28	1d	1	0.23mi
512 Albert Anthony St Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,990	$1.20	21d	1	0.38mi
325 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2189	$2,325	$1.06	12d	1	0.46mi
147 Sammy Fowler Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,250	$1.33	1d	1	0.51mi
201 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,195	$1.35	19d	1	0.56mi
120 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,149	$1.29	43d	1	0.57mi
523 Bennie Leonard St Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,350	$1.39	1d	1	0.59mi
208 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,330	$1.31	11d	1	0.59mi
131 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,169	$1.31	21d	1	0.60mi
101 Hancock St Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,929	$1.09	1d	1	0.61mi
170 Kennedy Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1661	$2,300	$1.38	1d	1	0.62mi
358 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,995	$1.20	1d	1	0.62mi
214 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	43d	1	0.62mi
108 Rushmore Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,969	$1.19	24d	1	0.74mi
428 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,150	$1.21	24d	1	0.76mi
113 Franklin Ct Venus, TX	5.0	2.0	2959	$2,370	$0.80	1d	1	0.81mi
112 Liberty Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$2,309	$1.39	43d	1	0.89mi
135 Houston Pl Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,029	$1.28	1d	1	0.91mi
628 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,200	$1.48	1d	1	0.95mi
640-644 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,100	$1.09	1d	1	0.98mi
720 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$2,200	$1.14	7d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr
• Likely covers: internetpool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-06
   price $349,900 1172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1172 chars)

   This phenomenal four-bedroom home is sure to be the talk of the town with its spacious layout, upgraded finishes, and stunning exterior design. Featuring four large bedrooms, including a main floor master suite, two-and-a-half bathrooms, an expansive family room, and a beautifully upgraded kitchen, this home offers the perfect blend of style and functionality. The chef-ready kitchen is equipped with Whirlpool® appliances, designer wood cabinetry, granite countertops, flush mount LED lighting, and a convenient USB outlet. The private master suite is filled with natural light and includes a bathroom with a soaking tub, separate shower, and large walk-in closet for a spa-like experience. Additional high-tech features include a Wi-Fi-enabled garage door opener, programmable thermostat, and energy-efficient double-pane Low-E vinyl windows. Ideally located right down the road from the neighborhood playground, gazebo, and private community splashpad, this home offers everyday comfort and convenience. Homeowners at Patriot Estates also enjoy world-class community amenities and close proximity to major employers, excellent schools, shopping, dining, and more.

2. 2026-02-13
   listed $367,900 Active 1172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1172 chars)

   This phenomenal four-bedroom home is sure to be the talk of the town with its spacious layout, upgraded finishes, and stunning exterior design. Featuring four large bedrooms, including a main floor master suite, two-and-a-half bathrooms, an expansive family room, and a beautifully upgraded kitchen, this home offers the perfect blend of style and functionality. The chef-ready kitchen is equipped with Whirlpool® appliances, designer wood cabinetry, granite countertops, flush mount LED lighting, and a convenient USB outlet. The private master suite is filled with natural light and includes a bathroom with a soaking tub, separate shower, and large walk-in closet for a spa-like experience. Additional high-tech features include a Wi-Fi-enabled garage door opener, programmable thermostat, and energy-efficient double-pane Low-E vinyl windows. Ideally located right down the road from the neighborhood playground, gazebo, and private community splashpad, this home offers everyday comfort and convenience. Homeowners at Patriot Estates also enjoy world-class community amenities and close proximity to major employers, excellent schools, shopping, dining, and more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $915 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,659 · $555/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,745/yr (+$479/mo · 628.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,384
• − Property taxes: −$915
• − Insurance: −$1,820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,357
• − Management: −$2,357
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$10,586
• Taxable loss: −$9,404
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,257
• After-tax cash flow: $-550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venus, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $349,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $367,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+21.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $915 · +21.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.