529 SW Alfalfa Ave #1 · Lake City, FL 32024

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured · 132 Days on market

Built 1991 4.02 ac lot Est $202k · 28% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located on 4.02 acres of gently rolling land in a quiet rural setting. The property offers open, usable acreage with mature trees and wide open space, providing privacy and room for a variety of uses. The home features approximately 1,620 square feet of living space with a functional layout, central air conditioning, and a metal roof. The split-bedroom floor plan offers separation between the primary suite and secondary bedrooms. The kitchen and living areas provide comfortable space for daily living. The home needs some repairs and updating but offers excellent potential for buyers looking to add their own personal touches. The acreage allows room for ga

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Gently rolling land
• Wide open space

Tags

• 4.02 ACRES
• GENTLY ROLLING LAND
• MATURE TREES
• WIDE OPEN SPACE
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: A1; Lot size: 4.02 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway; Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate countertops; Open floor plan; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds and window treatments

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $447 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.22%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,500
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
549 SW Quail Ridge Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-7%)	1mo	$189,000	$125	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $107,491
• Equity at exit: $130,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.25×
• Total profit: $294,192
• Equity at exit: $281,703

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32024

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,835 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $145,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    price $160,000
19. 2026-02-03
    listed $170,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,761
• − Management: −$1,761
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $3,253
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$781
• After-tax cash flow: $4,587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 40,507
• Population (ZIP): 20,644

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.05%
• Current HPI: 269.4659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $160,000 RACC
• 2026-02-03 Listed $170,000 RACC