392 Hickory Hills Dr · Pattison, TX 77423

$236,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,468 sqft · SingleFamily · 61 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,000 sqft lot $161/sqft · 33% below area Est $353k · 33% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the 1468 plan by Brohn Homes, a spacious one-story offering 4 bedrooms and a smart, functional layout. Just off the garage entry, you’ll find three secondary bedrooms and a full bath, creating a private wing perfect for family or guests. The heart of the home features a generous living room that flows seamlessly into the dining nook and kitchen, complete with ample cabinet storage and counter space—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite is tucked away off the living room for added privacy and includes a double-sink vanity, a walk-in shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Designed with both comfort and convenience in mind, this home is perfect for a variety of lifestyles.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $237k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.4% in Pattison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,770 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.12%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,596
• List price: $236,990
• Delta: -32.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-37,593
• Equity at exit: $35,336

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-48,870
• Equity at exit: $20,491

Cash invested: $66,357 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,243
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$296 /mo · $3,555/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,153

Max offer price $236,990

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $281	-5% $199	+0% $117	+5% $36	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-64	-5% $27	+0% $117	+5% $208	+10% $299
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $178	base $117	+0.5pp $56	+1.0pp $-6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,248
• Closing costs: $7,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $236,990 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $236,990 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $236,990 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $236,990 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $236,990 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $236,990 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $236,990 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $236,990 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $236,990 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $236,990 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $236,990 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $236,990 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $236,990 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $236,990 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    listed $236,990 Active 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    Welcome to the 1468 plan by Brohn Homes, a spacious one-story offering 4 bedrooms and a smart, functional layout. Just off the garage entry, you’ll find three secondary bedrooms and a full bath, creating a private wing perfect for family or guests. The heart of the home features a generous living room that flows seamlessly into the dining nook and kitchen, complete with ample cabinet storage and counter space—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite is tucked away off the living room for added privacy and includes a double-sink vanity, a walk-in shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Designed with both comfort and convenience in mind, this home is perfect for a variety of lifestyles.

16. 2026-04-09
    price $236,990 1056-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

    Welcome to 392 Hickory Hills Drive located in Azalea, a coming soon Brohn Homes community in Pattison! This one-story new construction home's layout blends practicality and warmth with modern finishes like wood-look vinyl flooring in the main living areas, bright white cabinets with nickel hardware, and natural light that fills every corner of the home. Walk into the kitchen and be greeted with Miami White silestone countertops, 42-inch upper cabinets, center island, corner pantry, and sleek stainless steel appliances with a gas range. Wind down in a primary bedroom with an ensuite bathroom with a walk-in shower, walk-in closet, dual vanity, and semi-private water closet. Other amazing highlights include a utility closet just off of the living room, and ceiling fans in the living and primary. Azalea offers a perfect blend of modern living and small-town charm. With convenient access to Morton Ranch Road, family friendly amenities, and zoning to Royal ISD, this thoughtfully planned community provides comfort, connection, and long-term value.

17. 2026-04-07
    listed $234,990 Active 1056-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

    Welcome to 392 Hickory Hills Drive located in Azalea, a coming soon Brohn Homes community in Pattison! This one-story new construction home's layout blends practicality and warmth with modern finishes like wood-look vinyl flooring in the main living areas, bright white cabinets with nickel hardware, and natural light that fills every corner of the home. Walk into the kitchen and be greeted with Miami White silestone countertops, 42-inch upper cabinets, center island, corner pantry, and sleek stainless steel appliances with a gas range. Wind down in a primary bedroom with an ensuite bathroom with a walk-in shower, walk-in closet, dual vanity, and semi-private water closet. Other amazing highlights include a utility closet just off of the living room, and ceiling fans in the living and primary. Azalea offers a perfect blend of modern living and small-town charm. With convenient access to Morton Ranch Road, family friendly amenities, and zoning to Royal ISD, this thoughtfully planned community provides comfort, connection, and long-term value.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,275
• − Property taxes: −$3,555
• − Insurance: −$1,185
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,210
• − Management: −$2,210
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$6,894
• Taxable loss: −$2,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$592
• After-tax cash flow: $2,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is a one-story plan with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, featuring a spacious layout and new construction. The home is move-in ready with minimal repairs and maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and cleaning — Fresh paint and cleaning will enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping will improve curb appeal and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and cleaning — Fresh paint and cleaning will enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping will improve curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $236,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $236,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Listed $234,990 Zillow