40246 W Hopper Dr · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$270,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,195 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 190 Days on market

Built 2012 5,401 sqft lot $123/sqft · 23% below area Est $352k · 23% under $47/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment Opportunity! Located in the growing area of Maricopa near shopping, amenities and restaurants, this home is a perfect starter or investment property for your portfolio.

Key facts

• Near shopping
• Near restaurants
• Near amenities

Tags

• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR AMENITIES
• NEAR RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-908/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 845 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,556 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,085
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -23.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40121 W Curtis Way	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,299 (+5%)	1mo	$379,900	$165	79
40258 W Michaels Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,223 (+1%)	1mo	$423,995	$191	74
21046 N Madeline St	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,151 (-2%)	0mo	$315,000	$146	73
21599 N Daniel Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,070 (-6%)	1mo	$380,000	$184	64
40556 W James Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,100 (-4%)	1mo	$335,000	$160	63
40954 W Brandt Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,263 (+3%)	1mo	$398,000	$176	63
40535 W Wade Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,070 (-6%)	2mo	$395,000	$191	61
19887 N Herbert Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,097 (-4%)	1mo	$375,000	$179	58
40470 W Rio Grande Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,070 (-6%)	1mo	$370,000	$179	53
40546 W Little Dr	0.72mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,080 (-5%)	1mo	$485,000	$233	52
40499 W Michaels Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,500 (+14%)	1mo	$425,995	$170	50
21525 N Rummler Ln	0.55mi	4/3.0	1,878 (-14%)	1mo	$370,000	$197	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-26,383
• Equity at exit: $66,633

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-16,204
• Equity at exit: $71,220

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 845
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,058/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$47
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,211

Max offer price $256,639

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $77	-5% $1	+0% $-76	+5% $-152	+10% $-228
Rent	-10% $-243	-5% $-159	+0% $-76	+5% $8	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $60	-0.5pp $-7	base $-76	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40174 W Brandt Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2115	$1,849	$0.87	5d	1	0.17mi
20392 N Mac Neil St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,681	$1.08	6d	1	0.21mi
40010 W Thornberry Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2157	$1,795	$0.83	44d	1	0.31mi
39974 W Thornberry Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1466	$1,900	$1.30	15d	1	0.32mi
40907 W Robbins Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1891	$1,749	$0.92	22d	1	0.44mi
40040 W Elm Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1598	$2,050	$1.28	44d	1	0.58mi
40481 W Jenna Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1819	$1,820	$1.00	6d	1	0.59mi
41057 W Ganley Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	1908	$1,965	$1.03	6d	1	0.60mi
40893 W Bedford Dr Maricopa, AZ	5.0	3.0	2748	$2,750	$1.00	6d	1	0.61mi
41094 W Somers Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,850	$1.15	2d	1	0.64mi
41209 W Hayden Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	2837	$3,500	$1.23	44d	1	0.67mi
21765 N Rummler Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1572	$2,095	$1.33	6d	1	0.69mi
41334 W Hayden Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2150	$1,689	$0.79	44d	1	0.76mi
21742 N Bradford Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1651	$1,850	$1.12	44d	1	0.81mi
21742 N Bradford Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1651	$1,775	$1.08	25d	1	0.81mi
21357 N Liles Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	2635	$2,300	$0.87	12d	1	0.81mi
41192 W Rio Bravo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1774	$1,789	$1.01	20d	1	0.84mi
41363 W Williams Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1599	$1,739	$1.09	44d	1	0.85mi
41570 W Dusty Creek Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,750	$1.12	44d	1	0.87mi
40515 W Chambers Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1978	$1,795	$0.91	15d	1	0.88mi
21110 N Blue Agave Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,895	$1.21	44d	1	0.90mi
21552 N Liles Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,850	$1.26	44d	1	0.90mi
41201 W Bravo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,799	$1.16	2d	1	0.99mi
41298 W Parkhill Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2037	$2,000	$0.98	44d	1	1.01mi
21657 N Dietz Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2151	$1,899	$0.88	44d	1	1.07mi
40785 W Agave Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1902	$1,999	$1.05	44d	1	1.14mi
40915 W Agave Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2152	$2,100	$0.98	44d	1	1.16mi
22555 N Diamond Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2180	$2,200	$1.01	11d	1	1.17mi
19488 N Falcon Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1836	$2,300	$1.25	12d	1	1.19mi
40499 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	44d	1	1.23mi
40871 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,000	$1.67	2d	1	1.28mi
40643 W Shaver Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,595	$1.10	25d	1	1.29mi
40356 W Shaver Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,775	$1.13	6d	1	1.30mi
21619 N Van Loo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1938	$3,500	$1.81	3d	1	1.31mi
42187 W Chisholm Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2312	$5,500	$2.38	44d	1	1.33mi
40145 W Hillman Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,750	$1.11	44d	1	1.33mi
40322 W Hillman Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,750	$1.21	25d	1	1.35mi
22427 N Vanderveen Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2855	$1,936	$0.68	6d	1	1.42mi
40086 W Bonneau St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1878	$1,729	$0.92	17d	1	1.42mi
40086 W Bonneau St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,699	$0.90	6d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $47 · $564/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $270,000 Pending 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 187 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 186 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 183 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $270,000 Active 182 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,000 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $290,000 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 176 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-03-24
    status Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Investment Opportunity! Located in the growing area of Maricopa near shopping, amenities and restaurants, this home is a perfect starter or investment property for your portfolio.

15. 2026-03-24
    price $290,000 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Investment Opportunity! Located in the growing area of Maricopa near shopping, amenities and restaurants, this home is a perfect starter or investment property for your portfolio.

16. 2025-10-22
    price $275,000 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Investment Opportunity! Located in the growing area of Maricopa near shopping, amenities and restaurants, this home is a perfect starter or investment property for your portfolio.

17. 2025-09-19
    status Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Investment Opportunity! Located in the growing area of Maricopa near shopping, amenities and restaurants, this home is a perfect starter or investment property for your portfolio.

18. 2025-09-13
    status Pending 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Investment Opportunity! Located in the growing area of Maricopa near shopping, amenities and restaurants, this home is a perfect starter or investment property for your portfolio.

19. 2025-09-13
    historical 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Investment Opportunity! Located in the growing area of Maricopa near shopping, amenities and restaurants, this home is a perfect starter or investment property for your portfolio.

20. 2025-08-29
    price $290,000 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Investment Opportunity! Located in the growing area of Maricopa near shopping, amenities and restaurants, this home is a perfect starter or investment property for your portfolio.

21. 2025-07-24
    price $326,000 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Investment Opportunity! Located in the growing area of Maricopa near shopping, amenities and restaurants, this home is a perfect starter or investment property for your portfolio.

22. 2025-06-19
    price $336,000 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Investment Opportunity! Located in the growing area of Maricopa near shopping, amenities and restaurants, this home is a perfect starter or investment property for your portfolio.

23. 2025-05-30
    price $240,000 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Investment Opportunity! Located in the growing area of Maricopa near shopping, amenities and restaurants, this home is a perfect starter or investment property for your portfolio.

24. 2025-05-29
    listed $268,800 Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Investment Opportunity! Located in the growing area of Maricopa near shopping, amenities and restaurants, this home is a perfect starter or investment property for your portfolio.

25. 2011-04-28
    soldstatus $404,250
26. 2004-11-04
    soldstatus $33,080,895

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,058 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,058 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$2,058
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,031
• − Management: −$2,031
• − HOA: −$564
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$5,626
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,350
• After-tax cash flow: $443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $290,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $275,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-09-13 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-09-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $290,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $326,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $336,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $240,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listed $268,800 ARMLS
• 2011-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $404,250 Public Records
• 2004-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $33,080,895 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,058 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.