2959 Eagles Nest Way · Port St. Lucie, FL 34952

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,636 sqft · Manufactured public records · 265 Days on market

Built 2005 6,688 sqft lot Est $162k · 23% over $286/mo HOA · 13% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful corner . .. nicely landscaped. lovely 3/2/1 carport, big 30 x 12 screened porch, shed 15 x 10 with electric. Huge kitchen, granite counter tops WITH BREAKFAST BAR AND stainless appliances. Laundry rm with washer & dryer. luxury vinyl floors, carpet in bedrooms. Sprinkler system. Home well maintained. NOTE: Land Leased property

Key facts

• Landscaped
• Shed with electric
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• LANDSCAPED
• SCREENED PORCH
• SHED WITH ELECTRIC
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community
• Financial info: Pets allowed with restrictions and limits
• HOA & community: Community association with multiple amenities including clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis and pickleball courts, golf, bocce, billiard room, business center, cafe/restaurant, library, sauna, putting green, shuffleboard, street lights, manager on site; Internet included; Monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (covered, 1 space)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Faces southwest; Resale condition; Located east of US-1
• Construction: Modular construction; Manufactured roof
• Exterior features: Screened porch and additional porch; Shed(s); Corner lot; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling with paddle fans
• Interior features: Cathedral and vaulted ceilings; Entrance foyer; Walk-in closet(s); Roman tub; Skylight(s); Blinds and sliding window features
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.00%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,964
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7822 White Ibis Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,612 (-2%)	2mo	$115,000	$71	87
2968 Eagles Nest Way	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+9%)	8mo	$199,999	$112	77
2948 Eagles Nest Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+9%)	15mo	$125,000	$70	71
2852 Eagles Nest Way	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (+5%)	22mo	$165,000	$96	61
7728 Mcclintock Ct	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,692 (+3%)	11mo	$185,000	$109	60
2847 Eagles Nest Way	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,808 (+10%)	24mo	$279,000	$154	58
3815 Sandlace Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,641 (+0%)	16mo	$190,000	$116	58
3115 Palm Warbler Ct	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,429 (-13%)	9mo	$140,000	$98	56
7707 Mcclintock Way	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,609 (-2%)	19mo	$160,000	$99	56
8112 Long Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+9%)	18mo	$122,000	$68	50
7928 Meadowlark Ln	0.57mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,475 (-10%)	1mo	$65,000	$44	47
3425 Crabapple Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,395 (-15%)	18mo	$205,000	$147	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-19,766
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,056
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $759/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$286
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,874

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	13d	15	1.01mi
3784 Sapodilla Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,300	$2.05	23d	1	1.10mi
71 W Caribbean Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	23d	1	1.41mi
7700 Pine Lakes Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,212	$2.16	13d	16	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $286 · $3,432/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $199,900 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 262 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 257 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 256 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,000 Active 255 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 254 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $205,000 Active 251 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 250 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 249 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 248 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 247 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 246 DOM
18. 2026-05-24
    price $205,000
19. 2026-01-25
    price $210,000
20. 2025-11-07
    price $225,000
21. 2025-09-24
    listed $249,900 Active
22. 2015-02-05
    historical
23. 2007-09-17
    historical
24. 2007-06-04
    listed $114,900
25. 2006-11-21
    listed $139,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $759 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,659 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$900/yr (+$75/mo · 118.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$759
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − HOA: −$3,432
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$330
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$79
• After-tax cash flow: $2,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+47.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Price Changed $205,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $210,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $225,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $249,900 Beaches MLS
• 2015-02-05 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2007-09-17 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2007-06-04 Listed $114,900 Beaches MLS
• 2006-11-21 Listed $139,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $759 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.