10035 Mills Station Rd · Rancho Cordova, CA 95827

$109,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 611 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2024

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This brand-new 2024 Calyton Fairpoint is a modern 1 bed, 1 bath home that feels fresh and ready for its very first resident. With clean lines, and a layout that makes every square inch intentional, this home is the perfect blend of cozy and contemporary.

Key facts

• Built 2024
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $500 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• Sacramento City Unified (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #804 of 1,400 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.49%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,098
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2905 Weikert Dr	0.29mi	2/1.0	604 (-1%)	11mo	$29,000	$48	75
10035 Mills Station Rd #11	0.00mi	2/1.0	684 (+12%)	10mo	$92,500	$135	71
2904 Poole Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0	697 (+14%)	3mo	$55,000	$79	58
2901 Twilley Dr #40	0.35mi	2/1.5	672 (+10%)	9mo	$79,500	$118	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $13,100
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $48,671
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95827

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,594 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $500

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2929 Routier Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,995	$2.53	2d	15	0.18mi
2729 El Parque Cir Unit 3 Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	24d	1	0.29mi
2080 W La Loma Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	650	$1,645	$2.53	18d	3	0.38mi
2080 W La Loma Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	587	$1,395	$2.37	44d	2	0.38mi
10108 Malaga Way Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	765	$1,776	$2.32	8d	1	0.45mi
2590 Capitales Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	559	$1,495	$2.67	15d	1	0.47mi
2590 Capitales Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	559	$1,495	$2.67	12d	1	0.47mi
2590 Capitales Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	559	$1,495	$2.67	20d	2	0.47mi
10335 White Rock Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$1,450	$2.32	10d	2	0.58mi
10401 Rockingham Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	714	$1,450	$2.03	8d	6	0.60mi
10421 El Mercado Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	702	$1,651	$2.35	2d	1	0.74mi
3060 Laurelhurst Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,395	$2.15	44d	1	0.82mi
10460 El Mercado Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	626	$1,295	$2.07	2d	1	0.85mi
3545 Mather Field Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	604	$1,775	$2.94	2d	5	0.92mi
2416 Moraine Cir Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	710	$1,188	$1.67	16d	2	1.04mi
10515 Mills Tower Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	665	$1,495	$2.25	10d	1	1.13mi
2830 Mills Park Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	712	$1,525	$2.14	24d	5	1.23mi
10501 Croetto Way Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,250	$1.92	44d	1	1.27mi
10434 Coloma Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	738	$1,699	$2.30	2d	3	1.43mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $109,900 Active 255-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,648
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,530
• − Management: −$1,530
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $4,515
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,084
• After-tax cash flow: $4,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sacramento City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633840
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,280
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #10000
• State rank: #804 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,742
• Household income: $85,841
• Rent vs Own: 36.7% rent · 63.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 10% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.22%
• Current HPI: 349.4168
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $109,900 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2017): $66 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.