406 Hamburg Rd · Mathews, VA 23138

$59,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 766 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1920 1.00 ac lot $77/sqft · 66% below area ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment opportunity in port Haywood. Includes 1 acre adjacent lot. A short drive to amazing beaches, shops, restaurants and much more. being sold " AS-IS"

Key facts

• Demo work started
• Well
• Complete rehab

Tags

• 1 ACRE PROPERTY
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• WELL
• COMPLETE REHAB
• DEMO WORK STARTED
• OUT OF FLOOD AREAS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Metal roof; Year built unknown
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven
• Bedrooms: Bedroom located on the first level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heating present
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Bedroom on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.4% vs local median 2.3% in Mathews — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mathews County Public School District (rural): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #79 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Mathews County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $913 of equity ($408 loan paydown + $505 appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Mathews County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.08%
• DSCR: 4.52
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,694
• List price: $59,000
• Delta: -66.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.24×
• Total profit: $70,030
• Equity at exit: $19,700

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.74×
• Total profit: $160,849
• Equity at exit: $25,841

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23138

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $402/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $1,089

Break-even live

Break-even rent $465

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    price $59,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $62,000 Active 690-char remark
18. 2025-09-19
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Investment opportunity in port Haywood. Includes 1 acre adjacent lot. A short drive to amazing beaches, shops, restaurants and much more. being sold " AS-IS"

19. 2025-09-19
    soldstatus $55,000

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Investment opportunity in port Haywood. Includes 1 acre adjacent lot. A short drive to amazing beaches, shops, restaurants and much more. being sold " AS-IS"

20. 2025-08-26
    status Pending 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Investment opportunity in port Haywood. Includes 1 acre adjacent lot. A short drive to amazing beaches, shops, restaurants and much more. being sold " AS-IS"

21. 2025-07-14
    price $66,000 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Investment opportunity in port Haywood. Includes 1 acre adjacent lot. A short drive to amazing beaches, shops, restaurants and much more. being sold " AS-IS"

22. 2025-06-09
    listed $78,000 Active 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Investment opportunity in port Haywood. Includes 1 acre adjacent lot. A short drive to amazing beaches, shops, restaurants and much more. being sold " AS-IS"

23. 2024-03-27
    soldstatus $62,500
24. 2024-03-25
    soldstatus $62,500 Closed

    Show marketing remark (1276 chars)

    * * Owner Financing Available * * Introducing 406 Hamburg Road – a golden opportunity for savvy investors and seasoned handymen alike. Nestled just a mile away from the picturesque Horn Harbor Marina, this property is more than just a house; it's an investment in potential. Boasting 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, this quaint river cottage is a blank canvas waiting for the right touch. Calling all rehab enthusiasts – here's your chance to turn this diamond in the rough into a shining gem. With its prime location near the marina, this property offers not only a charming dwelling but also the promise of a lucrative investment. Imagine the possibilities of transforming this handyman special into a dream retreat or a lucrative rental property. Whether you're an experienced investor or a DIY enthusiast, 406 Hamburg Road beckons with its potential and proximity to the water. Seize the chance to breathe new life into this hidden gem and capitalize on the allure of riverside living. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity – make 406 Hamburg Road your next successful venture in real estate. Would make a great affordable option to store your boat, jetskies or other toys. There is an additional lot available next door the owner may consider selling.

25. 2024-02-28
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (1276 chars)

    * * Owner Financing Available * * Introducing 406 Hamburg Road – a golden opportunity for savvy investors and seasoned handymen alike. Nestled just a mile away from the picturesque Horn Harbor Marina, this property is more than just a house; it's an investment in potential. Boasting 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, this quaint river cottage is a blank canvas waiting for the right touch. Calling all rehab enthusiasts – here's your chance to turn this diamond in the rough into a shining gem. With its prime location near the marina, this property offers not only a charming dwelling but also the promise of a lucrative investment. Imagine the possibilities of transforming this handyman special into a dream retreat or a lucrative rental property. Whether you're an experienced investor or a DIY enthusiast, 406 Hamburg Road beckons with its potential and proximity to the water. Seize the chance to breathe new life into this hidden gem and capitalize on the allure of riverside living. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity – make 406 Hamburg Road your next successful venture in real estate. Would make a great affordable option to store your boat, jetskies or other toys. There is an additional lot available next door the owner may consider selling.

26. 2023-12-23
    listed $50,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1276 chars)

    * * Owner Financing Available * * Introducing 406 Hamburg Road – a golden opportunity for savvy investors and seasoned handymen alike. Nestled just a mile away from the picturesque Horn Harbor Marina, this property is more than just a house; it's an investment in potential. Boasting 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, this quaint river cottage is a blank canvas waiting for the right touch. Calling all rehab enthusiasts – here's your chance to turn this diamond in the rough into a shining gem. With its prime location near the marina, this property offers not only a charming dwelling but also the promise of a lucrative investment. Imagine the possibilities of transforming this handyman special into a dream retreat or a lucrative rental property. Whether you're an experienced investor or a DIY enthusiast, 406 Hamburg Road beckons with its potential and proximity to the water. Seize the chance to breathe new life into this hidden gem and capitalize on the allure of riverside living. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity – make 406 Hamburg Road your next successful venture in real estate. Would make a great affordable option to store your boat, jetskies or other toys. There is an additional lot available next door the owner may consider selling.

27. 2023-12-07
    soldstatus $25,000
28. 2023-10-17
    soldstatus $25,000
29. 2023-10-17
    soldstatus $25,000
30. 2023-05-20
    status Under Contract
31. 2023-05-20
    historical
32. 2023-05-05
    status Active
33. 2023-05-04
    historical
34. 2023-04-28
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $402 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $484 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$82/yr (+$7/mo · 20.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$402
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,770
• − Management: −$1,770
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $12,862
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,087
• After-tax cash flow: $9,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathews County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102430
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,875
• Composite: 46.66/100
• National rank: #2407
• State rank: #79 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mathews

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #16333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,525
• Population (ZIP): 1,066

Population outlook (Mathews County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,597 people
• By 2030: 8,385 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 7,842 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 7,315 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 7,064 · -17.8%
• By 2100: 6,858 · -20.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mathews

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+31.3 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.86%
• Current HPI: 140.0722
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-26.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $59,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $62,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2025-09-19 Sold (MLS) $55,000 CBRAR
• 2025-08-26 Pending — CBRAR
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $66,000 CBRAR
• 2025-06-09 Listed $78,000 CBRAR
• 2024-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2024-03-25 Sold (MLS) $62,500 CVRMLS
• 2024-02-28 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2023-12-23 Listed $50,000 CVRMLS
• 2023-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-17 Sold (MLS) $25,000 CVRMLS
• 2023-10-17 Sold (MLS) $25,000 CVRMLS
• 2023-05-20 Pending — REINMLS
• 2023-05-20 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2023-05-05 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2023-05-04 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2023-04-28 Listed $79,900 REINMLS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $402 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.