281 E Wilson Dr · Yates, MI 49642

$79,095

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 798 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2001 6,375 sqft lot Est $134k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your piece of history at 281 E. Wilson Dr, Idlewild, MI! Nestled in the heart of the historic and culturally significant community of Idlewild, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom ranch-style home offers a unique opportunity to own a piece of a legendary American landscape. A special place: the ''Black Eden, '' legacy Idlewild is not just a location; it is a profound piece of history. Don't miss your chance to be a part of this enduring story. Whether you are looking for a peaceful retreat or a home with deep cultural roots, this property provides the perfect backdrop. Schedule your showing today to experience the magic of Idlewild for yourself.

Key facts

• 6,375 sq ft lot
• Built 2001

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity available; Natural gas water heater
• Home design: Ranch-style residence; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 2001; Block and vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (approx. 14 x 14); Bedroom 2 (approx. 11.12 x 8); Bedroom 3 (approx. 14 x 8.5)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (approx. 8 x 14); Bathroom 2 (approx. 7.71 x 4.46)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wall air conditioning units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Screens, insulated windows, and window treatments; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($997 rent vs $79k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($547 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $79,095

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.94%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,064
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6946 S Lakeview Ave	0.44mi	2/1.5 (-1)	819 (+3%)	3mo	$138,000	$168	66
6483 S Emma Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-4%)	2mo	$141,000	$184	65
317 E Baldwin Rd	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	700 (-12%)	4mo	$18,497	$26	52
414 E Sandusky	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (+13%)	19mo	$24,500	$27	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $27,079
• Equity at exit: $35,565

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $71,798
• Equity at exit: $54,809

Cash invested: $22,147 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49642

• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $997 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$415
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $774/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $648

Max offer price $79,095

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,774
• Closing costs: $2,373
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,095 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 662-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $79,095 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $774 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$222/yr (+$18/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,431
• − Property taxes: −$774
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$957
• − Management: −$957
• − Depreciation: −$2,301
• Taxable income: $2,152
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$517
• After-tax cash flow: $2,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,638
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #13447
• State rank: #618 of 760 in MI

Livability — Yates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,062

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 42% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: German 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Listed $79,095 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-10 Listed $79,095 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-10 Listed $79,095 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $774 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.