31661 Ocean Breeze Dr · San Antonio, FL 33576

$275,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,419 sqft · Townhouse · 113 Days on market

Built 2026 1,700 sqft lot $212/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy resort-style living in The Seabreeze this stunning 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath end-unit townhome in the gated community of Shores at Mirada. The main floor features 9'4" ceilings and a bright, open-concept layout that flows seamlessly from the living and dining areas into a modern kitchen with 42-inch cabinets, a stylish backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and a functional peninsula countertop perfect for meal prep and casual dining. Upstairs, 9-foot ceilings create a spacious feel in the primary suite with walk-in closet and private bath, plus two additional bedrooms. Additional highlights include a two-car garage and end-unit advantages, including extra windows and natural light. Residents enjoy access to the spectacular Mirada Lagoon, along with playgrounds, pickleball courts, a half basketball court, and guest parking. Stop by today and experience end-unit lagoon living!

Key facts

• $212 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Living area reported by builder: 1,419 (builder source); building area total 1,981; Planned unit development
• Financial info: Total annual fees $2,544; Other annual assessment $1,800; No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: HOA: Dream Finders Homes; Monthly HOA $212 (includes private road); Association amenities: gated community, fence restrictions, pickleball court(s), tennis court(s), playground, trails; Community features: community mailbox, deed restrictions, dog park, sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (18 x 19)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Attached townhouse; Two levels; Under construction (projected completion 2026-12-30); South-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: Dream Finders Homes (Model: Sea Breeze); Builder license CRC1330890; Permit number 2026-132
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Sidewalk; Cleared lot; Conservation area

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floorplan; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry on upper level

🏗️ New construction. The $275,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $248,325.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $276k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-391/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#454 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 48% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 364 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $239,938 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,325
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31825 Kestrel Calling Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,602 (+13%)	3mo	$279,990	$175	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.32% appreciation · 0.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-41,196
• Equity at exit: $44,622

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-55,692
• Equity at exit: $34,749

Cash invested: $69,531 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33576

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 364
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,399 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,302
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$310 /mo · $3,725/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$212
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,441

Max offer price $243,607

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,081
• Closing costs: $7,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31825 Kestrel Calling Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1602	$2,300	$1.44	24d	1	0.07mi
11608 Ascend Mirada Blvd San Antonio, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$2,550	$2.16	1d	21	0.18mi
11126 Tidepool Ct San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,200	$1.79	21d	1	0.39mi
11126 Tidepool Ct Unit Na San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,200	$1.79	19d	1	0.39mi
31478 Ocean Ave San Antonio, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1119	$2,499	$2.23	2d	47	0.46mi
11672 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,495	$1.33	14d	1	0.65mi
11545 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,250	$1.55	24d	1	0.68mi
11357 Cay Spruce Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1615	$2,100	$1.30	17d	1	0.73mi
10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,250	$1.33	1d	1	0.78mi
10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,250	$1.33	24d	1	0.78mi
32067 Eastern Redbud Br San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1639	$2,250	$1.37	24d	1	0.79mi
10715 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,050	$1.22	14d	1	0.87mi
32112 Pond Apple Bnd Unit 1 San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,000	$1.18	24d	1	0.88mi
10708 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,100	$1.31	17d	1	0.88mi
32118 Pond Apple Bnd San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1732	$2,400	$1.39	24d	1	0.88mi
10647 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1712	$2,400	$1.40	24d	1	0.92mi
32909 Osprey Peak Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,350	$1.51	24d	1	1.02mi
10462 Weldon Cork Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1747	$2,200	$1.26	14d	1	1.02mi
10959 Cotton Vale Pl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,100	$1.14	2d	1	1.05mi
10959 Cotton Vale Pl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,100	$1.14	20d	1	1.05mi
10583 Tupper Cay Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,950	$1.67	3d	1	1.05mi
32650 Osprey Peak Way San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,600	$1.41	12d	1	1.05mi
32783 Osprey Peak Way San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,200	$1.19	24d	1	1.08mi
10443 Lavender Aster Trl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,950	$1.17	24d	1	1.08mi
32077 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$2,100	$1.36	24d	1	1.10mi
32127 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	24d	1	1.14mi
32146 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,050	$1.14	19d	1	1.17mi
32201 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1634	$2,050	$1.25	24d	1	1.18mi
10375 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	17d	1	1.22mi
10888 Quail Grove Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,400	$1.42	24d	1	1.24mi
10321 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	21d	1	1.26mi
10334 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1634	$2,000	$1.22	24d	1	1.27mi
10250 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1676	$1,979	$1.18	24d	1	1.31mi
32009 Spiceberry St San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1513	$1,900	$1.26	17d	1	1.35mi
32010 Spiceberry St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	12d	1	1.38mi
10171 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	24d	1	1.39mi
32067 Spiceberry St San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,000	$1.22	4d	1	1.40mi
31856 Cardinal Yard Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.0	1783	$2,500	$1.40	24d	1	1.41mi
10121 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,100	$1.26	24d	1	1.42mi
10114 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	20d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $212 · $2,544/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingsecurity

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,990 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,990 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,990 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,990 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,990 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,990 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,990 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,990 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $275,990 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,990 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,990 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,990 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,990 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $275,990 Active 894-char remark

    Show marketing remark (894 chars)

    Enjoy resort-style living in The Seabreeze this stunning 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath end-unit townhome in the gated community of Shores at Mirada. The main floor features 9'4" ceilings and a bright, open-concept layout that flows seamlessly from the living and dining areas into a modern kitchen with 42-inch cabinets, a stylish backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and a functional peninsula countertop perfect for meal prep and casual dining. Upstairs, 9-foot ceilings create a spacious feel in the primary suite with walk-in closet and private bath, plus two additional bedrooms. Additional highlights include a two-car garage and end-unit advantages, including extra windows and natural light. Residents enjoy access to the spectacular Mirada Lagoon, along with playgrounds, pickleball courts, a half basketball court, and guest parking. Stop by today and experience end-unit lagoon living!

15. 2026-02-25
    price $275,990
16. 2026-02-25
    listed $278,953 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,910
• − Property taxes: −$3,725
• − Insurance: −$1,242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,303
• − Management: −$2,303
• − HOA: −$2,544
• − Depreciation: −$7,224
• Taxable loss: −$4,459
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,070
• After-tax cash flow: $679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #454
• US rank: #8221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 6,273
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,273
• Household income: $76,388
• Rent vs Own: 4.5% rent · 95.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 31.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Current HPI: 281.7138
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $275,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $275,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Listed $278,953 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid