4637 Dean Dr · Pace, FL 32571

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1979 0.32 ac lot Est $220k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful brick home in the heart of Pace * Original owners have pampered this extra nice 3/2 * Giant back yard for kids & pets * Lots of shade from large oak trees * Roof appx. 5 yrs old * New A/C system inside & out (only months old) * Sidewalk & Patio made from rare handmade brick * This will not be on the market long * Show & you will sell!

Key facts

• Fenced in backyard
• 0.32 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• FENCED IN BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 101 x 141 x 101 x 141
• HOA & community: Subdivision: GREEN PASTURES

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with space for 1 car
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric power (central AC/heating and electric water heater)
• Home design: Single-story Craftsman-style home; Built in 1979; Resid single-family zoning
• Construction: Brick and vinyl trim exterior; Shingle roof; Appraiser-sourced building area
• Exterior features: Open patio; Shed on the property; City street frontage; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heat controls
• Interior features: Open patio (covered as a patio/porch feature is listed); Living room on the first floor
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.5% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Berryhill Elementary School (math 71% / reading 62%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 923 students, 51% FRL); Pace High School (math 63% / reading 62%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,240 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $153k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.86%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,480
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4732 Pine Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+6%)	1mo	$230,000	$208	73
4397 Pine Villa Cir	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,025 (-1%)	22mo	$217,000	$212	60
4448 Pine Villa Cir	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,146 (+10%)	15mo	$250,000	$218	52
4732 W Spencer Field Rd	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (+10%)	12mo	$95,000	$83	48
4885 Mayo Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,182 (+14%)	2mo	$255,000	$216	42
4604 Fowler Dr	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,160 (+12%)	6mo	$59,000	$51	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-15,568
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $6,492
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 665
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,757/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4716 Chumuckla Hwy Unit 3903 Pace, FL	3.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	23d	1	1.09mi
4496 Fiske St Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,850	$1.30	13d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    listed $200,000 Active
17. 2021-10-04
    soldstatus $153,000
18. 2003-11-20
    soldstatus $68,500
19. 2003-11-11
    soldstatus $68,500 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    Beautiful brick home in the heart of Pace * Original owners have pampered this extra nice 3/2 * Giant back yard for kids & pets * Lots of shade from large oak trees * Roof appx. 5 yrs old * New A/C system inside & out (only months old) * Sidewalk & Patio made from rare handmade brick * This will not be on the market long * Show & you will sell!

20. 2003-07-14
    listed $74,500 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    Beautiful brick home in the heart of Pace * Original owners have pampered this extra nice 3/2 * Giant back yard for kids & pets * Lots of shade from large oak trees * Roof appx. 5 yrs old * New A/C system inside & out (only months old) * Sidewalk & Patio made from rare handmade brick * This will not be on the market long * Show & you will sell!

21. 1979-04-01
    soldstatus $28,200
22. 1979-02-01
    soldstatus $7,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,757 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,757 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,757
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,886
• − Management: −$1,886
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $27
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6
• After-tax cash flow: $3,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pace, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2566.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $200,000 ECAR
• 2021-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 2003-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records
• 2003-11-11 Sold (MLS) $68,500 PARMLS
• 2003-07-14 Listed $74,500 PARMLS
• 1979-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,200 Public Records
• 1979-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,757 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.