13026 Cypress Hill Dr · Moon Lake, FL 34669

$142,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,189 sqft · Condo public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1987 $487/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. In the gated community of Pine Ridge at Sugar Creek, in the 55+ section, enjoy easy, one level living in a quiet, tree-lined setting surrounded by nature. The community offers a relaxed lifestyle with a heated pool and spa, pickleball, clubhouse with planned activities, and peaceful green spaces with ponds. Just minutes to everything you need, about 5 minutes to Publix, 12 minutes to Bayonet Point Hospital, and 15 minutes to Hudson Beach. Clearwater Beach and Tampa International Airport are both about 45 minutes away, making travel, healthcare, and daily errands simple and convenient. This bright, well-k

Key facts

• Gated community
• Pickleball
• One level living

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• HEATED POOL
• PICKLEBALL
• PEACEFUL GREEN SPACES
• PRIVATE FRONT COURTYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Unfurnished unit; Senior community
• Financial info: Condo fees: $1,463 quarterly (monthly equivalent shown as $488); Total annual fees reported as $5,852
• HOA & community: HOA (Robert Oldro) with required approval; Quarterly association fees; Community pool; Clubhouse; Pickleball court(s); Recreation facilities; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Association fee covers cable TV, internet, pool, structure maintenance, grounds maintenance, pest control, sewer, trash, and water; Pets allowed (max 25 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; 1-car garage with garage door opener; Has garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Residential villa; Single-story; Faces north; Homestead property
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.03-acre lot
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Rain gutters; Masonry fencing; Asphalt road; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Formal dining room (separate); Total of 4 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $142k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.4% in Moon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#871 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 48% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $982 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.81%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-10,495
• Equity at exit: $21,173

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,661
• Equity at exit: $12,278

Cash invested: $39,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34669

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $529/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$487
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,690

Max offer price $142,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,500
• Closing costs: $4,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12405 Shearwater Dr Unit 12405 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	2d	1	0.75mi
12706 White Bluff Rd Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,870	$1.38	1d	1	0.95mi
12135 Environmental Dr #4 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,800	$1.45	24d	1	1.07mi
11550 Baywood Meadows Dr #7 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,495	$1.48	24d	1	1.07mi
12065 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,200	$1.53	17d	1	1.39mi
12245 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1207	$2,280	$1.89	24d	1	1.41mi
13341 Tropical Breeze Way Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,000	$1.37	4d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $487 · $5,844/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $142,000 Active
3. 2005-12-29
   soldstatus $149,900
4. 2002-08-21
   soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $529 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,179 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$650/yr (+$54/mo · 123.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,954
• − Property taxes: −$529
• − Insurance: −$710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,856
• − Management: −$1,856
• − HOA: −$5,844
• − Depreciation: −$4,131
• Taxable income: $323
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$77
• After-tax cash flow: $2,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Moon Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #871
• US rank: #22850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,618
• Household income: $58,638
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.24%
• Current HPI: 321.5862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+105.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $142,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $149,900 Public Records
• 2002-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $529 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.