12979 Bullis Rd · Town Line, NY 14052

$139,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,808 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1938 3.10 ac lot $50/sqft · 70% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this classic 1938 brick home set back in the woods on over 3 acres of land. Offering more than 500 feet of frontage, the expansive lot features a private wooded setting surrounding the home along with a beautiful orchard below. This property is full of potential and ready for you to bring your vision and make it your own. The home welcomes you with a spacious, open living and dining area complete with a gas fireplace, flowing into a year-round sunroom that captures the natural setting. A galley kitchen with adjoining sitting room provides additional space to relax and enjoy the surroundings. The first floor includes a bedroom and full bath, while the second floor offers two to thr

Key facts

• Galley kitchen
• Gas fireplace
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• PRIVATE WOODED SETTING
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• GAS FIREPLACE
• YEAR-ROUND SUNROOM
• GALLEY KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached heated garage with electric and garage door opener; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected with circuit breakers; Public water connected; Septic tank sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story dwelling (listed as 1 story total); Resale property; Main thoroughfare frontage
• Construction: Brick and composite siding exterior; Copper plumbing; Asphalt shingle roof; Poured foundation; Existing (year built details listed as existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Enclosed porch; Open porch; Patio; Private yard; Shed(s)/storage; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level; Four additional bedrooms on upper and main levels (total 5 bedrooms); Bedroom 1 on first floor; Bedroom 2 on second floor; Bedroom 3 on second floor; Bedroom 4 on second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Radiators
• Interior features: Den; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Home office; Living/dining room; Natural woodwork; Window treatments/drapes; Workshop; Has fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (dryer listed); Laundry in basement; Gas water heater; Generator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.2% in Town Line — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alden Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #229 of 590 in NY (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price; built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $139,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.18%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $459,846
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -69.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12881 Bullis Rd	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,538 (-10%)	9mo	$418,000	$165	63
1925 Eastwood Rd	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,154 (+12%)	15mo	$743,000	$236	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-9,608
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $9,064
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14052

• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,874 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$487 /mo · $5,845/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,619

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 1209-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $139,900 Active 1209-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,845 · $487/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,845 · $487/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$5,845
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,799
• − Management: −$1,799
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$106
• After-tax cash flow: $2,314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alden Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602550
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $62,135
• Composite: 51.77/100
• National rank: #1676
• State rank: #229 of 590 in NY

Livability — Town Line

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,501

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.44%
• Current HPI: 327.8237
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,845 · +87.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.