209 W Nebraska Ave · St. Joseph, MO 64504

$87,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1902 0.80 ac lot $81/sqft · at area comps Est $83k · 6% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! Don't miss this updated, tenant-occupied two-bedroom home in St. Joseph. This fully renovated property offers a turnkey opportunity for investors looking to add to their portfolio or begin building one. The home includes a ramped entry and an oversized bathroom, providing added functionality and convenience. Do not disturb tenant. this home can only be viewed with a properly scheduled appt. The lease is in place until June 1 2027 with monthly rent of $850. This property is tenant occupied. Please do not disturb the tenants or walk the property without an approved appointment. A minimum of 24-hour notice is required for all showings. Whether you're looking for your

Key facts

• 0.8 acre lot
• Built 1902

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $88k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $605 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $88k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.22%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $82,536
• List price: $87,500
• Delta: 9.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 E Kansas Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,050 (-3%)	1mo	$80,000	$76	83
524 E Kansas Ave	0.37mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,080 (+0%)	6mo	$159,900	$148	70
5207 Pryor Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0	966 (-10%)	1mo	$69,900	$72	68
3906 Terrace Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0	992 (-8%)	4mo	$38,000	$38	61
5505 S 1st St	0.49mi	2/1.5	1,039 (-4%)	10mo	$119,900	$115	61
402 Blake St	0.37mi	2/1.0	932 (-14%)	1mo	$139,000	$149	59
321 Fleeman St	0.56mi	2/1.0	956 (-11%)	7mo	$147,500	$154	49
5543 S 1st St	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+11%)	0mo	$154,900	$129	48
114 Ohio St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (+6%)	7mo	$145,000	$127	46
5325 Sawyer St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	964 (-11%)	7mo	$84,500	$88	46
3801 Terrace Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,189 (+10%)	6mo	$99,500	$84	44
212 Ohio St	0.73mi	2/1.0	940 (-13%)	2mo	$90,000	$96	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $2,974
• Equity at exit: $13,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $24,574
• Equity at exit: $7,565

Cash invested: $24,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64504

• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$459
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $298/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $658

Max offer price $87,500

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,875
• Closing costs: $2,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5206 King Hill Ave Unit C St Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	1122	$1,000	$0.89	43d	1	0.31mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $87,500 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $87,500 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,500 Coming Soon 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,500 Coming Soon 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,500 Coming Soon 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $87,500 Coming Soon 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $87,500 Coming Soon 1 DOM
9. 2026-05-13
   historical
10. 2026-04-25
    price $90,000
11. 2026-03-06
    listed $105,000 Active
12. 2026-03-06
    historical
13. 2026-02-24
    price $105,000
14. 2026-01-09
    listed $125,000 Active
15. 2026-01-08
    historical
16. 2024-05-28
    historical
17. 2024-05-15
    listed $99,000
18. 2024-05-15
    historical
19. 2024-05-02
    listed $99,000
20. 2021-03-25
    soldstatus
21. 2021-03-23
    soldstatus Closed
22. 2020-09-03
    status Pending
23. 2020-09-02
    status Active
24. 2020-07-22
    historical
25. 2019-11-20
    listed $49,000 Active
26. 2018-11-02
    soldstatus $36,000
27. 2006-10-04
    listed $45,500
28. 1970-05-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $298 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $849 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$551/yr (+$46/mo · 185.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,901
• − Property taxes: −$298
• − Insurance: −$438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$2,545
• Taxable income: $1,898
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$456
• After-tax cash flow: $2,783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• City population: 44,382
• Population (ZIP): 10,286

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 149.9895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+97.8% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $90,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $105,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $105,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listed $125,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Coming Soon — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-28 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-15 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-15 Listed $99,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-02 Listed $99,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-23 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-03 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-02 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-22 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-20 Listed $49,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-04 Listed $45,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1970-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $298 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.