15439 Woody Haven Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$289,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,210 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,750 sqft lot $131/sqft · at area comps Est $279k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Tivoli plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, Flex Room, and 2-car garage. It features a convenient kitchen island with space for high-top seating, spacious walk-in closet, dedicated upstairs game room, dedicated laundry room, and additional flex room that can be converted into an office, workout space, arts & crafts area, and more.

Key facts

• Smart home package
• Gourmet kitchen
• 42 inch cabinetry

Tags

• SMART HOME PACKAGE
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• 42 INCH CABINETRY
• SILESTONE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BOX WINDOW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($327/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Milam El (math 49% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 524 students, 82% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $263,967 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,990
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: 3.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16827 Country Roots Ave	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,173 (-2%)	2mo	$306,990	$141	85
15611 Country Charm Trl	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,084 (-6%)	1mo	$322,258	$155	80
16767 Country Roots Ave	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,034 (-8%)	0mo	$310,990	$153	74
14154 Granger Pointe	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,255 (+2%)	1mo	$269,540	$120	67
16866 Needlepoint Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,049 (-7%)	2mo	$279,212	$136	54
14143 Granger Pointe Ln	0.65mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-10%)	2mo	$252,790	$128	51
14305 Grey Pointe	0.68mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-10%)	1mo	$269,790	$136	50
16812 Needlepoint Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,026 (-8%)	1mo	$269,765	$133	49
14308 Grey Pointe Ct	0.69mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-10%)	2mo	$264,640	$134	49
16981 Hazelnut Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+11%)	2mo	$334,900	$137	47
14300 Ash Tree Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+11%)	1mo	$324,900	$133	47
14337 Ash Tree Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+11%)	1mo	$319,900	$131	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-44,381
• Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-32,813
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,605

Max offer price $289,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $127	+0% $27	+5% $-73	+10% $-173
Rent	-10% $-181	-5% $-77	+0% $27	+5% $132	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $173	-0.5pp $101	base $27	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,230	$1.33	0d	13	0.76mi
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	45d	1	1.11mi
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	45d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,990 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,990 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,990 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    listed $289,990 Active 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    The Tivoli plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, Flex Room, and 2-car garage. It features a convenient kitchen island with space for high-top seating, spacious walk-in closet, dedicated upstairs game room, dedicated laundry room, and additional flex room that can be converted into an office, workout space, arts & crafts area, and more.

16. 2026-05-01
    price $289,990 907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (907 chars)

    Love where you live in Granger Pines in Conroe, TX! Now featuring Legend’s NEW Smart Home package and Signature Design Collection! The Tivoli floor plan is a spacious 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, study, game room, and 2-car garage. This home has it all, including privacy blinds and vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42-inch cabinetry, silestone countertops, stainless-steel appliances, and a box window at the dining area. Washer, Dryer, and Refrigerator are included, too! Retreat to the first-floor Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with silestone countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet! Secondary bedrooms have walk-in closets, too! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio and no back neighbors! Don’t miss your opportunity to call Granger Pines home, schedule a visit today!

17. 2026-04-16
    listed $293,126 Active 907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (907 chars)

    Love where you live in Granger Pines in Conroe, TX! Now featuring Legend’s NEW Smart Home package and Signature Design Collection! The Tivoli floor plan is a spacious 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, study, game room, and 2-car garage. This home has it all, including privacy blinds and vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42-inch cabinetry, silestone countertops, stainless-steel appliances, and a box window at the dining area. Washer, Dryer, and Refrigerator are included, too! Retreat to the first-floor Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with silestone countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet! Secondary bedrooms have walk-in closets, too! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio and no back neighbors! Don’t miss your opportunity to call Granger Pines home, schedule a visit today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,534
• − Management: −$2,534
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$4,520
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,085
• After-tax cash flow: $1,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home features a modern kitchen, smart home technology, and a spacious floor plan, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home package — Enhances home security and convenience.
• Both Smart thermostat — Saves energy and improves comfort.
• Both Smart doorbell camera — Enhances security and convenience.
• Both Smart deadbolt — Enhances security and convenience.
• Both Smart sprinkler system — Saves water and improves landscaping maintenance.
• Both Smart garage door opener — Enhances convenience and security.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart home package — Enhances home security and convenience. ↑
• Both Smart thermostat — Saves energy and improves comfort. ↑
• Both Smart doorbell camera — Enhances security and convenience. ↑
• Both Smart deadbolt — Enhances security and convenience. ↑
• Both Smart sprinkler system — Saves water and improves landscaping maintenance. ↑
• Both Smart garage door opener — Enhances convenience and security. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $289,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $293,126 HARMLS