823 Daybreak Dr · Avon, IN 46123

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2004 5,663 sqft lot Est $260k · at est. $26/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained all-brick ranch in Sunchase Woods offering 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and comfortable single-level living with 9-foot ceilings throughout. The open layout connects a spacious living room to an eat-in kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, pantry, and laminate wood flooring - all appliances included. The primary suite offers a generous footprint with a walk-in closet and private bath with double vanity, soaking tub, and separate shower. Two additional bedrooms and a full second bath provide great flexibility. The dedicated laundry room with included washer and dryer, built-in garage cabinetry, newer water heater, and new water softener reflect the care

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• All brick ranch
• Open layout

Tags

• ALL BRICK RANCH
• OPEN LAYOUT
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in Avon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#75 in IN, #4,686 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Avon Community School Corporation (suburban): math 51% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #32 of 301 in IN (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pine Tree Elementary School (math 67% / reading 52%, grade B-, #128 of 994 statewide, top 15%, 428 students, 55% FRL); Avon High School (math 44% / reading 76%, grade C+, #46 of 369 statewide, top 13%, 3,348 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 20% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 380 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,294 units permitted in Hendricks County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hendricks County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $202,900 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
823 Daybreak Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,408 (0%)	1mo	$264,000	$188	99
10229 Morning Light Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,408 (0%)	0mo	$252,000	$179	94
10212 Morning Sun Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,408 (0%)	4mo	$251,000	$178	91
868 Flying Sun Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+1%)	2mo	$260,000	$182	90
10064 Sundown Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+1%)	7mo	$260,000	$183	89
776 Sunvista Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-12%)	3mo	$260,000	$210	71
535 New Moon St	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,376 (-2%)	9mo	$245,000	$178	68
10256 New Dawn Pl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-12%)	9mo	$230,000	$185	64
805 Sunvista Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-12%)	12mo	$255,000	$206	63
1222 S County Road 1050 E	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+11%)	9mo	$350,000	$224	51
10712 Huntwick Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,244 (-12%)	5mo	$232,000	$186	46
1076 Halifax Ln	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,606 (+14%)	4mo	$248,000	$154	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-47,931
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-49,432
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46123

• Home prices YoY: -21.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 380
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,029 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,350/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$26
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $243,973

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
539 Sun Ridge Blvd Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1222	$1,800	$1.47	21d	1	0.32mi
10531 Kings Row Dr Avon, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1080	$1,933	$1.79	1d	11	0.50mi
10729 Newgate Ln Indianapolis, IN	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,771	$1.21	23d	1	0.73mi
9225 Concert Way Indianapolis, IN	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,270	$1.26	7d	1	1.03mi
10871 Zimmerman Ln Indianapolis, IN	3.0	2.0	1751	$1,771	$1.01	7d	1	1.08mi
10272 Steeplechase Dr Avon, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,905	$2.03	1d	42	1.18mi
2145 Shadowbrook Dr Plainfield, IN	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,100	$1.49	2d	1	1.46mi
2155 Shadowbrook Dr Unit 1228635P Plainfield, IN	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,856	$1.83	7d	1	1.47mi
481 Villa Meadow Dr Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,900	$1.46	23d	1	1.47mi
9661 Trail Dr Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,925	$1.33	17d	1	1.48mi
9762 Trail Dr Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,901	$1.57	1d	1	1.48mi
345 Angelina Way Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,149	$1.23	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $26 · $312/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $259,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,350 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,350 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$2,350
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,948
• − Management: −$1,948
• − HOA: −$312
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$5,628
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,351
• After-tax cash flow: $269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avon Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1800270
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $75,987
• Composite: 46.93/100
• National rank: #2362
• State rank: #32 of 301 in IN

Livability — Avon

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #4686

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hendricks County · 143,373 people
• City population: 43,353
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• Population (ZIP): 43,353
• Household income: $103,485
• Rent vs Own: 19.6% rent · 80.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Hendricks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 187,418 people
• By 2030: 201,494 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 228,487 · +21.9%
• By 2050: 253,068 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 308,920 · +64.8%
• By 2100: 336,510 · +79.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hendricks

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.4% · R 59.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -23.4pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+23.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.05%
• Current HPI: 203.9226
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $259,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,350 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.