3912 & 3914 N Los Ebanos Rd · Mission, TX 78573

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 307 Days on market

Built 1977 0.34 ac lot $109/sqft · 29% below area Est $305k · 29% under ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Corner lot 4 bedroom home sits on two spacious lots. Located in a highly rated school district and close to schools. This home is an ideal investment for those looking to remodel or start fresh and build new. Some furniture will convey with the sale.

Key facts

• Two spacious lots
• Close to schools
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• TWO SPACIOUS LOTS
• MATURE TREES
• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOL DISTRICT
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 623 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,709 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.87%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,848
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -29.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3901 Crimson Ave	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,904 (-4%)	4mo	$323,000	$170	79
3911 Crimson Ave	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,998 (+1%)	6mo	$352,000	$176	78
1312 Tiffany Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,129 (+8%)	5mo	$375,000	$176	66
1717 Thompson Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,915 (-3%)	5mo	$260,000	$136	66
905 Azalea St	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,807 (-9%)	1mo	$335,000	$185	65
907 Azalea St	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,807 (-9%)	3mo	$335,000	$185	64
903 Azalea St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,807 (-9%)	2mo	$335,000	$185	64
3006 Washington Ave	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,910 (-4%)	4mo	$364,000	$191	59
3600 Joycee Dr	0.34mi	3/3.5	1,757 (-11%)	6mo	$285,000	$162	55
900 Ramirez St	0.55mi	3/3.0	1,761 (-11%)	1mo	$320,000	$182	51
904 Ramirez St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-15%)	2mo	$320,000	$190	48
3004 Washington Ave	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,730 (-13%)	3mo	$332,000	$192	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $107,026
• Equity at exit: $193,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $320,589
• Equity at exit: $417,698

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78573

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 623
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,587 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,168/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,769

Max offer price $189,581

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2104 Magnolia St Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1382	$1,500	$1.09	43d	1	0.84mi
1806 W 31st 1/2 St Mission, TX	4.0	2.0	1509	$1,800	$1.19	21d	1	0.88mi
3102 Gabriel St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,800	$1.31	43d	1	0.88mi
3006 Gabriel St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,600	$1.12	43d	1	0.91mi
3209 Black Oak Ln Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1672	$1,700	$1.02	14d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 307 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 306 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 305 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 304 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 302 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 299 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 298 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 297 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 296 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 292 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 291 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 290 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 289 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 288 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    price $215,000 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Corner lot 4 bedroom home sits on two spacious lots. Located in a highly rated school district and close to schools. This home is an ideal investment for those looking to remodel or start fresh and build new. Some furniture will convey with the sale.

16. 2025-08-15
    listed $225,000 Active 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Corner lot 4 bedroom home sits on two spacious lots. Located in a highly rated school district and close to schools. This home is an ideal investment for those looking to remodel or start fresh and build new. Some furniture will convey with the sale.

17. 2025-07-01
    price $225,000
18. 2025-06-03
    price $250,000
19. 2025-04-11
    listed $275,000 Active
20. 2025-04-04
    price $300,000
21. 2025-02-04
    price $325,000
22. 2024-11-24
    price $350,000
23. 2024-08-13
    listed $375,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,168 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,767/yr (+$147/mo · 81.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,168
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,524
• − Management: −$1,524
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$5,543
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,330
• After-tax cash flow: $-397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,809
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 855.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 63% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.95%
• Current HPI: 242.0711
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.45%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-42.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $215,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $225,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $225,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $250,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-04-11 Listed $275,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $300,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $325,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-11-24 Price Changed $350,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-08-13 Listed $375,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,168 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.