12049 Holly Dr #20 · Lakeview, OH 43331

$82,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 115 Days on market

Built 1995 Average condition $65/sqft · 112% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake Life Starts Here - Holiday Shores Park at Indian Lake Welcome to easy living in Holiday Shores Park near Indian Lake! Priced at $82,999, this well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 full bath mobile home offers comfort, convenience, and a lifestyle you'll love -- especially during the vibrant summer season. Property Features: 2 spacious bedrooms 2 full bathrooms All appliances included Large concrete driveway with plenty of parking Storage shed for extra space Nice open grass lot Covered deck -- perfect for relaxing mornings or evening gatherings Located in the heart of Holiday Shores Park at Indian Lake, you'll enjoy being close to the lake that comes alive in the summer with boating, water activities, restaurants, and local bars. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend retreat, this home offers affordable access to lake-area living without the lakefront price. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of the Indian Lake lifestyle -- schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Storage shed
• Open grass lot

Tags

• LARGE CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• STORAGE SHED
• COVERED DECK
• OPEN GRASS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 5.8% in Lakeview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#836 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Indian Lake Local (rural): math 59% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #261 of 656 in OH (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 121 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $574 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $75,529 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.49%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $39,210
• List price: $82,999
• Delta: 111.68%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11773 Sunview Ave	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,324 (+3%)	6mo	$65,000	$49	78
12102 Shannon Dr #89	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-14%)	5mo	$25,000	$23	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $20,481
• Equity at exit: $12,375

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $61,585
• Equity at exit: $7,176

Cash invested: $23,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43331

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$104 /mo · $1,245/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $726

Max offer price $82,999

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,750
• Closing costs: $2,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11900 Duff Rd Lakeview, OH	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,400	$1.04	1d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,999 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,999 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,999 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,999 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,999 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $82,999 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,999 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,999 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,999 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $82,999 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $82,999 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,999 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,999 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,999 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-02-23
    listed $82,999 Active 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    Lake Life Starts Here - Holiday Shores Park at Indian Lake Welcome to easy living in Holiday Shores Park near Indian Lake! Priced at $82,999, this well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 full bath mobile home offers comfort, convenience, and a lifestyle you'll love -- especially during the vibrant summer season. Property Features: 2 spacious bedrooms 2 full bathrooms All appliances included Large concrete driveway with plenty of parking Storage shed for extra space Nice open grass lot Covered deck -- perfect for relaxing mornings or evening gatherings Located in the heart of Holiday Shores Park at Indian Lake, you'll enjoy being close to the lake that comes alive in the summer with boating, water activities, restaurants, and local bars. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend retreat, this home offers affordable access to lake-area living without the lakefront price. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of the Indian Lake lifestyle -- schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,649
• − Property taxes: −$1,245
• − Insurance: −$415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$2,415
• Taxable income: $5,388
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,293
• After-tax cash flow: $5,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal
• Resale replace carpeted flooring — improves living space
• Resale install new kitchen cabinets — modernizes kitchen
• Resale install new bathroom fixtures — enhances bathroom functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · standard fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace carpeted flooring — improves living space ↑
• Resale install new kitchen cabinets — modernizes kitchen ↑
• Resale install new bathroom fixtures — enhances bathroom functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian Lake Local
• NCES district ID: 3904808
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,496
• Composite: 52.6/100
• National rank: #1559
• State rank: #261 of 656 in OH

Livability — Lakeview

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #836
• US rank: #15632

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Logan · 47,256 people
• Population (ZIP): 4,012
• Household income: $60,159
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 16.1

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,240 people
• By 2030: 43,166 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 40,495 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 37,511 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 30,453 · -31.2%
• By 2100: 23,081 · -47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.2) · D 21.5% · R 77.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.6pp toward R · 2008: -26.6pp · 2024: -56.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.2 2020: R+55.2 2016: R+52.6 2012: R+31.8 2008: R+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.75%
• Current HPI: 256.2406
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $82,999 WCARE