12049 Holly Dr #20 · Lakeview, OH 43331

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · Manufactured · 130 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1995 Average condition $65/sqft · 38% below area Est $112k · 38% under · waterfront $500/mo HOA · 46% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.9

Listing remarks

Lake Life Starts Here - Holiday Shores Park at Indian Lake Welcome to easy living in Holiday Shores Park near Indian Lake! Priced at $82,999, this well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 full bath mobile home offers comfort, convenience, and a lifestyle you'll love -- especially during the vibrant summer season.

Key facts

• Close to the lake
• Fishing and boating
• Pristine condition

Tags

• CLOSE TO THE LAKE
• FISHING AND BOATING
• PRISTINE CONDITION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $51k (27.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#836 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Indian Lake Local (rural): math 59% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #261 of 656 in OH (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Indian Lake Elementary School (math 72% / reading 67%, grade A-, #391 of 1,584 statewide, top 27%, 510 students, 45% FRL); Indian Lake Middle School (math 56% / reading 65%, grade B+, #259 of 654 statewide, top 40%, 407 students, 42% FRL); Indian Lake High School (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B-, #202 of 781 statewide, top 29%, 492 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 180 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 121 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 46% of rent.

Recommended offer $50,880 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.09%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,500
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -37.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 6.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8651 Ohio 368 Unit 101E	3.37mi	2/1.0	1,062 (-2%)	0mo	$40,000	$38	58
8651 Ohio 368 Unit 72C	3.37mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,164 (+8%)	3mo	$185,000	$159	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-19,435
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-26,446
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $59,900 ($67/sqft)
• Median days on market: 258 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +56.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 43331

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,078 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$500
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,245

Max offer price $50,880

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-84	-5% $-108	+0% $-132	+5% $-156	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-217	-5% $-175	+0% $-132	+5% $-90	+10% $-47
Rate	-1.0pp $-97	-0.5pp $-114	base $-132	+0.5pp $-150	+1.0pp $-169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11900 Duff Rd Lakeview, OH	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,400	$1.04	0d	1	1.19mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Holiday Shores subdivision
• HOA & community: Association with a $500 monthly feeAssociation fee includes snow removal and water

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewerShared well
• Home design: Residential mobile homeBuilt in 1995
• Construction: Vinyl sidingNo foundation details listed
• Exterior features: PorchShed(s)Lake-related waterfrontLeased land / leased lotShared well water source

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1Bedroom 2
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningForced air heatingNatural gas heating
• Interior features: 7 total roomsNo basement
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerUtility room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $70,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $70,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $70,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $70,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $70,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $70,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $70,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $70,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $70,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $70,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $70,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $70,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $70,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $70,000 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $70,000 Active 113 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $70,000 Active 112 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $70,000 Active 111 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $70,000 Active 110 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $70,000 Active 109 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $70,000 Active 108 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $70,000 Active 107 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $70,000 Active 106 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $70,000 Active 105 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $70,000 Active 104 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $70,000 Active 103 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $70,000 Active 102 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $70,000 Active 101 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $70,000 Active 100 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 99 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 98 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $70,000 Active 97 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 96 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 95 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 94 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 93 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    price $70,000 Active 92 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 92 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 91 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $75,000 Active 90 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $75,000 Active 89 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $75,000 Active 88 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $75,000 Active 87 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $75,000 Active 86 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $75,000 Active 85 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $75,000 Active 84 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $75,000 Active 82 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $75,000 Active 81 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $75,000 Active 79 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,035
• − Management: −$1,035
• − HOA: −$6,000
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable loss: −$2,491
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$598
• After-tax cash flow: $-988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,390–$16,170 screening

This mobile home is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace carpeted flooring — improves living space ↑
• Resale install new kitchen cabinets — modernizes kitchen ↑
• Resale install new bathroom fixtures — enhances bathroom functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 64/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Indian Lake Elementary School A- OH #391/1,584 Nat'l #3,487/41,679 Middle Indian Lake Middle School B+ OH #259/654 Nat'l #1,738/14,009 High Indian Lake High School B- OH #202/781 Nat'l #3,220/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian Lake Local
• NCES district ID: 3904808
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,496
• Composite: 52.6/100
• National rank: #1559
• State rank: #261 of 656 in OH

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Lakeview

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #836
• US rank: #15632

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Logan · 44,240 people
• Population (ZIP): 4,012
• Household income: $60,159
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,240 people
• By 2030: 43,166 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 40,495 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 37,511 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 30,453 · -31.2%
• By 2100: 23,081 · -47.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.2) · D 21.5% · R 77.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.6pp toward R · 2008: -26.6pp · 2024: -56.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.2 2020: R+55.2 2016: R+52.6 2012: R+31.8 2008: R+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.75%
• Current HPI: 256.2406
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Holiday Shores subdivision
• HOA & community: Association with a $500 monthly feeAssociation fee includes snow removal and water

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewerShared well
• Home design: Residential mobile homeBuilt in 1995
• Construction: Vinyl sidingNo foundation details listed
• Exterior features: PorchShed(s)Lake-related waterfrontLeased land / leased lotShared well water source

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1Bedroom 2
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningForced air heatingNatural gas heating
• Interior features: 7 total roomsNo basement
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerUtility room

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-01 Listed $79,900 WRIST
• 2026-02-23 Listed $82,999 WCARE