954 Green Vines Ln · Houston, TX 77091

$264,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,384 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 $191/sqft · 17% below area Est $318k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The property is located at 954 Green Vines Lane HOUSTON TX 77091 priced at 264990, the square foot and stories are 1384, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 30 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-292 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 675 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,948/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 3210% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $194,810 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.73%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,861
• List price: $264,990
• Delta: -16.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1055 Wheatley Oak Ln	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,384 (0%)	4mo	$299,990	$217	87
961 Mansfield St	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,586 (+15%)	2mo	$314,990	$199	73
955 Mansfield St	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,586 (+15%)	3mo	$309,990	$195	72
862 Rachel St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,298 (-6%)	4mo	$275,900	$213	69
5827 Highland Sun Ln	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,497 (+8%)	6mo	$314,900	$210	68
845 Elkhart St Unit C	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,528 (+10%)	3mo	$309,900	$203	67
6508 Cohn St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+6%)	2mo	$275,000	$187	62
778 Paul Quinn Unit A	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,556 (+12%)	6mo	$347,990	$224	51
776 Paul Quinn Unit A	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,556 (+12%)	6mo	$347,990	$224	51
1540 W Tidwell Rd	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,516 (+10%)	6mo	$299,900	$198	48
1230 W Donovan St	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+8%)	6mo	$300,000	$200	48
6729 Arabella St	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,583 (+14%)	3mo	$270,000	$171	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-63,275
• Equity at exit: $39,511

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-85,996
• Equity at exit: $22,911

Cash invested: $74,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77091

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 675
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,948 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $222,696

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,248
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
833 Paul Quinn St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1226	$1,800	$1.47	43d	1	0.34mi
831 Paul Quinn St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1226	$1,800	$1.47	24d	1	0.34mi
1200 W Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,295	$1.38	2d	12	0.41mi
5722 # E Unit Beall St unit Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$2,011	$1.36	43d	1	0.45mi
5720 Beall St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$2,006	$1.36	43d	1	0.45mi
774 Paul Quinn St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1651	$2,350	$1.42	43d	1	0.51mi
6127 W Montgomery Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1786	$2,000	$1.12	24d	1	0.51mi
6513 Knox St Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	1773	$2,100	$1.18	43d	1	0.52mi
1007 Pinemont Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	985	$1,774	$1.80	43d	1	0.70mi
714 W Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1296	$1,094	$0.84	43d	1	0.74mi
1001 Pinemont Dr Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1155	$1,389	$1.20	7d	1	0.76mi
1001 Pinemont Dr Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1155	$1,381	$1.20	2d	1	0.76mi
1001 Pinemont Dr Unit 1038 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1155	$1,413	$1.22	10d	1	0.76mi
1001 Pinemont Dr Unit 1058 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1155	$1,414	$1.22	43d	1	0.76mi
1001 Pinemont Dr Unit 96 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1155	$1,599	$1.38	43d	1	0.76mi
5115 Royal Heath Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,175	$1.36	24d	1	0.92mi
6555 Sealey St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,700	$1.50	24d	1	0.95mi
1032 Glen Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1667	$2,400	$1.44	43d	1	1.08mi
717 Lehman St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1084	$3,120	$2.88	4d	263	1.11mi
603 W Donovan St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	948	$1,250	$1.32	43d	1	1.15mi
603 W Donovan St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	948	$1,250	$1.32	21d	1	1.15mi
910 1/2 Oak St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,995	$1.31	43d	1	1.21mi
717 Janisch Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1821	$2,750	$1.51	43d	1	1.21mi
717 Janisch Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1821	$2,750	$1.51	24d	1	1.21mi
5342 Donovan Gardens Ln Unit 1521013P Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1743	$2,985	$1.71	7d	1	1.27mi
622 Janisch Rd Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	1785	$2,650	$1.48	43d	1	1.29mi
4840 N Shepherd Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$2,430	$2.79	3d	21	1.30mi
312 W Sunnyside St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	894	$1,001	$1.12	43d	1	1.33mi
402 Del Norte St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,300	$1.28	43d	1	1.36mi
2303 W Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1061	$1,145	$1.08	3d	3	1.36mi
7514 Sandle St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1523	$1,999	$1.31	43d	1	1.40mi
7008 Emma Lou St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1610	$3,000	$1.86	18d	1	1.42mi
7486 N Shepherd Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1177	$1,290	$1.10	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $264,990 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $264,990 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-05-15
   price $305,990 237-char remark
4. 2026-05-01
   listed $310,990 Active 237-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,870
• − Management: −$1,870
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$8,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,972
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,728
• Household income: $35,432
• Rent vs Own: 64.6% rent · 35.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3210.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Black 45% Two or more races 15% White 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.19%
• Current HPI: 283.7523
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B