2811 Locust St · Kerrville, TX 78028

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1940 8,354 sqft lot Est $232k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare Kerrville investment opportunity on TWO residential lots with excellent redevelopment or renovation potential. Located outside the flood zone and less than 0.5 miles from the Guadalupe River. This property offers a large footprint in an established neighborhood near schools, Schreiner University, multiple parks/playgrounds, and the Kerrville VA Medical Center. Sitting just 2.5 miles from downtown, it is ideal for investors, builders, or buyers looking to create something new in a prime Kerrville location. Conveniently Located Near:?• Guadalupe River – less than 0.5 miles?• Daniels Elementary School – 1.2 miles?• Hal Peterson Middle School – 1.7 miles?&b

Key facts

• Residential lot
• Rebuild or tear down
• Guadalupe river

Tags

• INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY
• REBUILD OR TEAR DOWN
• GUADALUPE RIVER
• RESIDENTIAL LOT
• SOUGHT AFTER NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces (see remarks for details)
• Utilities: Above-ground utilities; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces northeast; Resale property
• Construction: Year built (per public records); Construction details: See remarks
• Exterior features: Backyard; Native plants; See remarks (additional exterior details)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Main-level primary bedroom; No interior steps; See remarks (additional interior details)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details: See remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $678 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.1% in Kerrville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#25 in TX, #1,483 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Kerrville ISD (town): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #220 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 753 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 422 units permitted in Kerr County in 2024 (322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kerr County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 48% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.20%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,448
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 N Goss St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-2%)	4mo	$255,000	$254	73
104 Amelia Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,166 (+14%)	3mo	$264,900	$227	60
112 N Ivy Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+6%)	15mo	$237,000	$219	59
4050 Loop 534	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+15%)	5mo	$259,000	$220	36
2305 Memorial Blvd	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,135 (+11%)	23mo	$280,000	$247	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $23,752
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $76,428
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78028

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 753
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,825 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,023/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $678

Break-even live

Break-even rent $968

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Amelia Ct Kerrville, TX	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,650	$1.51	43d	1	0.10mi
486 Bridal Path Kerrville, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	43d	1	0.52mi
2105 Singing Wind Dr Kerrville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	822	$1,375	$1.67	2d	5	0.57mi
2105 Singing Wind Dr Kerrville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	822	$1,375	$1.67	43d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-28
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,173/yr (+$98/mo · 114.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 48% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,023
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,752
• − Management: −$1,752
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $6,565
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,576
• After-tax cash flow: $6,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kerrville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825590
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,050
• Composite: 40.54/100
• National rank: #3702
• State rank: #220 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kerrville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #1483

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kerrville, TX
• County: Kerr County · 41,206 people
• City population: 41,206
• Metro: Kerrville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,206
• Household income: $66,991
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1092.0

Population outlook (Kerr County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,010 people
• By 2030: 55,651 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 58,923 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 62,117 · +15.0%
• By 2075: 71,809 · +33.0%
• By 2100: 77,004 · +42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Kerr

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.4% · R 76.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -49.6pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+59.1 2008: R+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.97%
• Current HPI: 213.3663
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Metro: Kerrville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $120,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,023 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.