2811 Locust St · Kerrville, TX 78028

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1940 Poor condition 8,354 sqft lot $117/sqft · 53% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare Kerrville investment opportunity on TWO residential lots with excellent redevelopment or renovation potential. Located outside the flood zone and less than 0.5 miles from the Guadalupe River. This property offers a large footprint in an established neighborhood near schools, Schreiner University, multiple parks/playgrounds, and the Kerrville VA Medical Center. Sitting just 2.5 miles from downtown, it is ideal for investors, builders, or buyers looking to create something new in a prime Kerrville location. Conveniently Located Near:?• Guadalupe River – less than 0.5 miles?• Daniels Elementary School – 1.2 miles?• Hal Peterson Middle School – 1.7 miles?

Key facts

• Residential lot
• Rebuild or tear down
• Guadalupe river

Tags

• INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY
• REBUILD OR TEAR DOWN
• GUADALUPE RIVER
• RESIDENTIAL LOT
• SOUGHT AFTER NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 2.5% in Kerrville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#25 in TX, #1,483 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Kerrville ISD (town): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #220 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Daniels El (math 56% / reading 50%, grade C, #705 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 548 students, 66% FRL); Peterson Middle (math 39% / reading 50%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 1,075 students, 52% FRL); Tivy H S (math 42% / reading 60%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,468 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 998 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 422 units permitted in Kerr County in 2024 (322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kerr County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 48% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.09%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,000
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -53.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 N Goss St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-2%)	7mo	$255,000	$254	71
104 Amelia Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,166 (+14%)	6mo	$264,900	$227	57
112 N Ivy Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+6%)	18mo	$237,000	$219	56
1911 Singing Wind	0.94mi	3/2.0	1,026 (+0%)	12mo	$215,000	$210	50
1072 Shutter Way	0.82mi	3/2.0	1,217 (+19%)	2mo	$259,900	$214	34
4050 Loop 534	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+15%)	8mo	$259,000	$220	34
3615 Riverside Dr	0.87mi	3/2.5	1,204 (+18%)	4mo	$699,000	$581	30
1208 Moraine Pl	0.94mi	3/2.0	1,217 (+19%)	23mo	$271,999	$223	17
1071 Shutter Way	0.81mi	3/2.0	1,217 (+19%)	23mo	$269,990	$222	17
3218 Plateau Pl	0.88mi	3/2.0	1,217 (+19%)	24mo	$271,999	$223	16
1127 Moraine Pl	0.91mi	3/2.0	1,217 (+19%)	24mo	$261,999	$215	16
1130 Moraine Pl	0.94mi	3/2.0	1,217 (+19%)	24mo	$241,999	$199	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $19,996
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $68,310
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $235,000 ($225/sqft)
• Median days on market: 97 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +11.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78028

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 998
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,023/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $968

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $687	-5% $653	+0% $619	+5% $585	+10% $551
Rent	-10% $480	-5% $549	+0% $619	+5% $688	+10% $757
Rate	-1.0pp $679	-0.5pp $649	base $619	+0.5pp $588	+1.0pp $556

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Amelia Ct Kerrville, TX	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,650	$1.51	139d	1	0.10mi
121 Amelia Ct Kerrville, TX	3.0	2.0	1059	$1,800	$1.70	5d	1	0.12mi
2601 Singing Wind Dr Kerrville, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,465	$1.38	1d	1	0.13mi
2318 Sailing Way N Kerrville, TX	2.0	1.5	1084	$1,500	$1.38	5d	1	0.31mi
486 Bridal Path Kerrville, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	5d	1	0.52mi
486 Bridal Path Kerrville, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	139d	1	0.52mi
2105 Singing Wind Dr Kerrville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	822	$1,425	$1.73	0d	8	0.57mi
2105 Singing Wind Dr Kerrville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	822	$1,375	$1.67	139d	1	0.57mi
3414 Riverside Dr Kerrville, TX	2.0	1.0	988	$1,200	$1.21	1d	1	0.83mi
518 Wigwam Ln Kerrville, TX	2.0	1.0	847	$1,350	$1.59	5d	1	0.95mi
516 Tomahawk Trl Kerrville, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,295	$1.36	5d	1	1.00mi
324 Lytle St Kerrville, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,095	$1.75	5d	1	1.34mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces (see remarks for details)
• Utilities: Above-ground utilitiesPublic waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Single-story homeFaces northeastResale property
• Construction: Year built (per public records)Construction details: See remarks
• Exterior features: BackyardNative plantsSee remarks (additional exterior details)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingElectric cooling
• Interior features: Main-level primary bedroomNo interior stepsSee remarks (additional interior details)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details: See remarks

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $120,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $120,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $120,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-08-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $120,000 Active 90 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $120,000 Active 89 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $120,000 Active 88 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $120,000 Active 87 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $120,000 Active 86 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $120,000 Active 85 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $120,000 Active 84 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $120,000 Active 82 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $120,000 Active 81 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $120,000 Active 80 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $120,000 Active 79 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $120,000 Active 78 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $120,000 Active 77 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $120,000 Active 76 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $120,000 Active 75 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $120,000 Active 74 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 73 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 72 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 71 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $120,000 Active 70 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 69 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 68 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 64 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $120,000 Active 58 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $120,000 Active 57 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $120,000 Active 56 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,173/yr (+$98/mo · 114.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 48% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,023
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,813
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,395
• After-tax cash flow: $6,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $51,200–$92,160 screening

This property requires extensive repairs and improvements to its roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls, and HVAC system. Landscaping and curb appeal improvements can significantly increase its value for both resale and rental.

Components & finishes AI

Roof metal · failing

Deferred maintenance Est. $50,000–$150,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — Visible rust and damage on metal roof
• Major Windows (windows) — Visible damage and missing panels on windows
• Major Electrical (electrical) — Exposed wiring and missing panels
• Major Plumbing (plumbing) — Exposed pipes and missing panels
• Major Exterior (exterior) — Visible damage and missing panels on exterior

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Rusty metal roof with visible damage
• Major exterior walls — Exterior walls appear to be made of adobe or similar material, with visible cracks and discoloration
• Major flooring — Flooring appears to be concrete or similar material, with visible cracks and unevenness
• Major interior walls/paint — Interior walls show signs of wear and tear, with peeling paint and discoloration
• Major HVAC unit — Old and in need of maintenance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Aesthetic improvements can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both HVAC unit replacement — A new HVAC unit can improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Exterior wall repairs and repainting — Repairs and repainting can enhance the home's curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Interior wall repairs and repainting — Repairs and repainting can improve the home's appearance and functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Daniels El C TX #705/4,322 Nat'l #10,986/41,679 Middle Peterson Middle D TX #491/1,662 Nat'l #4,747/14,009 High Tivy H S D+ TX #482/1,632 Nat'l #5,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kerrville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825590
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,050
• Composite: 40.54/100
• National rank: #3702
• State rank: #220 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Kerrville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #1483

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kerrville, TX
• County: Kerr County · 54,010 people
• City population: 41,206
• Metro: Kerrville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,206
• Household income: $66,991
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Kerr County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,010 people
• By 2030: 55,651 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 58,923 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 62,117 · +15.0%
• By 2075: 71,809 · +33.0%
• By 2100: 77,004 · +42.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kerr

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.4% · R 76.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -49.6pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+59.1 2008: R+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.97%
• Current HPI: 213.3663
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Metro: Kerrville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces (see remarks for details)
• Utilities: Above-ground utilitiesPublic waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Single-story homeFaces northeastResale property
• Construction: Year built (per public records)Construction details: See remarks
• Exterior features: BackyardNative plantsSee remarks (additional exterior details)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingElectric cooling
• Interior features: Main-level primary bedroomNo interior stepsSee remarks (additional interior details)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details: See remarks

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $120,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,023 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.