1018 Big Horn Cir NW · Palm Bay, FL 32907

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,235 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1986 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming family POOL home in sought after NW Palm Bay area. 3 bedrooms/2 full baths/1 car garage with split bedroom floor plan. New tile throughout home & freshly painted inside & out. Relax in the large fenced in backyard with new above ground pool or enjoy the screened in lanai. Lush landscaping in front & backyard. New AC in 2018. Quiet neighborhood convenient to shopping, restaurants, beaches, & I95.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Newer water heater
• Backs up to canal

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• BACKS UP TO CANAL
• NEWER WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Faces east
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Screened porch; Few trees on the lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Split bedroom layout
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Discovery Elementary School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 641 students, 69% FRL); Central Middle School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 1,127 students, 53% FRL); Heritage High School (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,007 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 43% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 739 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $160k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.54%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,119
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,227
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32907

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 739
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,938/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,638

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
838 Gillen Ave NW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,900	$1.34	14d	1	0.44mi
1460 Cass Ave NW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,765	$1.41	23d	1	0.99mi
1699 Givens Ct NW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,900	$1.30	14d	1	1.00mi
1147 Jericho Ave NW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,700	$1.26	23d	1	1.04mi
1572 Holbrook Rd NW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,945	$1.55	23d	1	1.12mi
496 Iroquois Ave NW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,950	$1.73	23d	1	1.18mi
1614 Earlham Ave NW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,750	$1.47	23d	1	1.20mi
916 Spring St NW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,800	$1.20	23d	1	1.24mi
1388 Hazel St NW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,894	$1.28	14d	1	1.26mi
1649 Cains Ave NW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1294	$2,000	$1.55	23d	1	1.28mi
308 Tamarind Cir NW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,100	$1.56	23d	1	1.30mi
890 Serenade St NW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	901	$1,850	$2.05	23d	1	1.46mi
874 Altona St NW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,955	$1.31	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $200,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $210,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $210,000
16. 2026-05-04
    status Active
17. 2026-04-28
    status Pending
18. 2026-04-16
    listed $215,000 Active
19. 2019-06-26
    soldstatus $160,000
20. 2019-06-18
    soldstatus $160,000 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Charming family POOL home in sought after NW Palm Bay area. 3 bedrooms/2 full baths/1 car garage with split bedroom floor plan. New tile throughout home & freshly painted inside & out. Relax in the large fenced in backyard with new above ground pool or enjoy the screened in lanai. Lush landscaping in front & backyard. New AC in 2018. Quiet neighborhood convenient to shopping, restaurants, beaches, & I95.

21. 2019-05-01
    listed $175,000 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Charming family POOL home in sought after NW Palm Bay area. 3 bedrooms/2 full baths/1 car garage with split bedroom floor plan. New tile throughout home & freshly painted inside & out. Relax in the large fenced in backyard with new above ground pool or enjoy the screened in lanai. Lush landscaping in front & backyard. New AC in 2018. Quiet neighborhood convenient to shopping, restaurants, beaches, & I95.

22. 2018-09-04
    historical 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Charming family POOL home in sought after NW Palm Bay area. 3 bedrooms/2 baths/1 car garage with split bedrooms & open floor plan great for entertaining. Tile throughout home & freshly painted. Relax in the large fenced in backyard with new above ground pool or enjoy the screened in lanai. Lush landscaping in front & backyard. Quiet neighborhood convenient to shopping, restaurants, & I95.

23. 2018-08-15
    listed $169,000 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Charming family POOL home in sought after NW Palm Bay area. 3 bedrooms/2 baths/1 car garage with split bedrooms & open floor plan great for entertaining. Tile throughout home & freshly painted. Relax in the large fenced in backyard with new above ground pool or enjoy the screened in lanai. Lush landscaping in front & backyard. Quiet neighborhood convenient to shopping, restaurants, & I95.

24. 2016-09-02
    soldstatus $118,000
25. 2016-08-31
    soldstatus $118,000
26. 2016-06-28
    listed $120,000
27. 2004-05-20
    soldstatus $110,750
28. 2004-05-14
    soldstatus $110,750
29. 2004-03-15
    listed $115,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,938 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,938 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,938
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$106
• After-tax cash flow: $3,557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,080
• Household income: $75,311
• Rent vs Own: 13.3% rent · 86.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 15% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.79%
• Current HPI: 308.9719
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+81.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $210,000 SCMLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — SCMLS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — SCMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $215,000 SCMLS
• 2019-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-18 Sold (MLS) $160,000 SCMLS
• 2019-05-01 Listed $175,000 SCMLS
• 2018-09-04 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2018-08-15 Listed $169,000 SCMLS
• 2016-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-31 Sold (MLS) $118,000 SCMLS
• 2016-06-28 Listed $120,000 SCMLS
• 2004-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $110,750 Public Records
• 2004-05-14 Sold (MLS) $110,750 SCMLS
• 2004-03-15 Listed $115,900 SCMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,938 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.