181 Cider Creek Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$234,160

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,419 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,399 sqft lot Est $245k · at est. $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

181 Cider Creek Drive combines charm, smart design, and added curb appeal thanks to its alley-access lot-placing the focus on a welcoming front elevation in Harvest Ridge, Elgin's award-winning master-planned community. This two-story home features a rear detached shed, rear covered patio, and a covered porch perfect for enjoying the beautiful Texas outdoors. Inside you'll be greeted with wood-look vinyl on the first floor, 5 panel interior doors, and ample natural lighting. Enter the L-shaped kitchen that offers Miami White Silestone countertops, 42-inch upper cabinets, sleek black appliances with a gas range, and cozy window above the single-basin sink overlooking the backyard. Relax in t

Key facts

• Alley-access lot
• Covered porch
• Rear detached shed

Tags

• ALLEY-ACCESS LOT
• REAR DETACHED SHED
• REAR COVERED PATIO
• COVERED PORCH
• WOOD-LOOK VINYL
• 42-INCH UPPER CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 181 Cider Creek Dr, Elgin TX 78621; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $234,160

Exterior

• Home design: Harvest Ridge 1419 floor plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,419

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $234k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $200,980 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.84%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,487
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
153 Daylily Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,419 (0%)	1mo	$230,990	$163	97
158 Daylily Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,419 (0%)	1mo	$236,990	$167	96
127 Summer Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,419 (0%)	2mo	$233,000	$164	94
149 Daylily Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-7%)	1mo	$223,750	$169	83
108 Summer Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,468 (+4%)	1mo	$259,990	$177	83
126 Daylily Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,468 (+4%)	4mo	$274,100	$187	82
167 Daylily Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-7%)	3mo	$221,750	$167	80
123 Bluestem Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,500 (+6%)	0mo	$202,500	$135	80
112 Bountiful Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,468 (+4%)	2mo	$255,990	$174	78
104 Summer Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-13%)	1mo	$241,770	$197	72
100 Daylily Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-13%)	2mo	$249,180	$203	71
14713 Eagles Claw Way	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,580 (+11%)	1mo	$272,900	$173	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $121,446
• Equity at exit: $210,950

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $363,313
• Equity at exit: $454,921

Cash invested: $65,565 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,010 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,228
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$293 /mo · $3,512/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,137

Max offer price $219,620

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,540
• Closing costs: $7,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	1d	1	0.14mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	3d	1	0.15mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,850	$1.21	2d	1	0.35mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	19d	1	0.42mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	1d	1	0.53mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	0.68mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	23d	1	0.71mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	1d	1	0.72mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	0.73mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	0.76mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	19d	1	0.78mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	11d	1	0.82mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	17d	1	0.82mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	43d	1	0.84mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	23d	1	0.88mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	23d	1	0.88mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	0.88mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	43d	1	0.88mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	1d	6	0.89mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.90mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	12d	1	1.01mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	43d	1	1.16mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	14d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,160 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,160 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,160 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,160 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,160 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,160 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $234,160 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on marketlisting id $234,160 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-04
    listed $234,160 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,117
• − Property taxes: −$3,512
• − Insurance: −$1,171
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,929
• − Management: −$1,929
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$6,812
• Taxable loss: −$5,193
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,246
• After-tax cash flow: $40/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Elgin's Harvest Ridge community is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a well-maintained exterior, good kitchen and bath, and ample natural lighting. Landscaping and interior paint updates would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B