199 Homewood Ave · Tonawanda Town, NY 14217

$249,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1946 6,397 sqft lot $210/sqft · 9% below area Est $275k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

199 Homewood Ave is picture perfect and move in ready! 4 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. Completely remodeled kitchen with new appliances. Both bathrooms are remodeled. Gleaming hardwood floors thoroughout the livingroom and downstairs bedrooms. New floors thoughout the kitchen, both bathrooms, and upstairs bedrooms. Freshly painted throughout. Updated: windows, mechanics, and electrical. Architectural roof. Vinyl siding and concrete driveway. Massive backyard with draintile. 1.5 detached garage. Don't wait!

Key facts

• New floors
• Updated windows
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• GLEAMING HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW FLOORS
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• UPDATED MECHANICS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; Existing construction; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 50 x 127)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Main-level primary bedroom; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.8%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $246,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.53%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,495
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -9.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
298 Lowell Rd	0.29mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,249 (+5%)	2mo	$190,000	$152	71
308 Lowell Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,249 (+5%)	6mo	$243,000	$195	65
99 Coventry Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,314 (+11%)	6mo	$285,000	$217	61
216 Waverly Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,257 (+6%)	6mo	$185,000	$147	60
82 Canterbury Ln	0.23mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,307 (+10%)	8mo	$235,000	$180	59
21 Waverly Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (+5%)	8mo	$223,000	$179	54
295 Westchester Blvd	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,284 (+8%)	6mo	$220,000	$171	52
110 Traverse Blvd	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,290 (+9%)	2mo	$255,000	$198	52
16 Zimmerman Blvd	0.43mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,009 (-15%)	3mo	$211,050	$209	46
155 Traverse Blvd	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,305 (+10%)	6mo	$235,000	$180	40
140 Thurston Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,322 (+11%)	7mo	$255,000	$193	39
111 Paramount Pkwy	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,322 (+11%)	8mo	$308,149	$233	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-17,482
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $58,816
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14217

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,554 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$456 /mo · $5,470/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,368

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Colonial Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1240	$2,900	$2.34	23d	1	0.09mi
36-46 Crowell Ct Unit 40 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	23d	1	0.59mi
237 W Girard Blvd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1329	$4,000	$3.01	23d	1	0.83mi
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	11d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $249,900 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-05-06
   listed $249,900 Active 509-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,470 · $456/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,470 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$5,470
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,452
• − Management: −$2,452
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$2,241
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$538
• After-tax cash flow: $2,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,471
• Household income: $73,800
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 727.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.52%
• Current HPI: 330.7596
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.76%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $249,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,470 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.