688 Fm 555 · Gilmer, TX 75645

$155,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1970 0.97 ac lot $84/sqft · 49% below area Est $304k · 49% under ↓ 18% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute fixer upper in the country! 3/2/2 Brick home on almost an acre of land. Needs flooring put back down. Has a pretty fireplace. Needs updating.

Key facts

• 0.97 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.9% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,869 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.81%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,718
• List price: $155,900
• Delta: -48.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $93,784
• Equity at exit: $140,447

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $269,363
• Equity at exit: $302,879

Cash invested: $43,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75645

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,611 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,021/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,436

Max offer price $155,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,975
• Closing costs: $4,677
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,900 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,900 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,900 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,900 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,900 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,900 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,900 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,900 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,900 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,900 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,900 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,900 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,900 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,900 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,900 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,900 Active 90 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,900 Active 89 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $155,900 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Cute fixer upper in the country! 3/2/2 Brick home on almost an acre of land. Needs flooring put back down. Has a pretty fireplace. Needs updating.

19. 2026-04-08
    price $159,900 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Cute fixer upper in the country! 3/2/2 Brick home on almost an acre of land. Needs flooring put back down. Has a pretty fireplace. Needs updating.

20. 2026-03-02
    listed $189,900 Active 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Cute fixer upper in the country! 3/2/2 Brick home on almost an acre of land. Needs flooring put back down. Has a pretty fireplace. Needs updating.

21. 2025-04-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,021 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,021 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,733
• − Property taxes: −$3,021
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,547
• − Management: −$1,547
• − Depreciation: −$4,535
• Taxable loss: −$829
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$199
• After-tax cash flow: $1,860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,511

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 35.93%
• Current HPI: 319.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $155,900 LAAR
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $159,900 LAAR
• 2026-03-02 Listed $189,900 LAAR
• 2025-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,021 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.