5254 S Santa Claus Ave · Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ 85650

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Land public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1972 1.10 ac lot $138/sqft · 10% below area Est $200k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Freshly updated and move-in ready! This beautifully refreshed home at 5254 S Santa Claus Ave is being sold as-is and features brand-new flooring, stylish new countertops, and fresh interior paint throughout, creating a bright and modern feel. Enjoy morning coffee or evening sunsets from the newly built porches while taking in stunning mountain views. The thoughtful updates offer comfort and style, making this home perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located in Sierra Vista, this property combines peaceful surroundings with easy access to town amenities. Would also make a fantastic investment property or rental opportunity. Don't miss this turn-key opportunity!

Key facts

• New flooring
• Newly built porches
• New countertops

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEWLY BUILT PORCHES
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.5% in Sierra Vista Southeast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#113 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $179k implies a 209% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.33%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,000
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -10.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,702
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $45,116
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85650

• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $530/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,339

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5333 S Santa Claus Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,900	$1.09	43d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 105 DOM
17. 2026-02-13
    listed $179,000 Active 683-char remark

    Show marketing remark (683 chars)

    Freshly updated and move-in ready! This beautifully refreshed home at 5254 S Santa Claus Ave is being sold as-is and features brand-new flooring, stylish new countertops, and fresh interior paint throughout, creating a bright and modern feel. Enjoy morning coffee or evening sunsets from the newly built porches while taking in stunning mountain views. The thoughtful updates offer comfort and style, making this home perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located in Sierra Vista, this property combines peaceful surroundings with easy access to town amenities. Would also make a fantastic investment property or rental opportunity. Don't miss this turn-key opportunity!

18. 2021-09-16
    soldstatus $58,000 Closed 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Lovely project home looking for a handy new owner to continue all the great work that has been started. Home has been taken down to framing. Framing is all new. Some electrical and plumbing upgraded. Needs insulation, drywall, flooring, and any other upgrading desired. One acre of fenced horse property with a conex storage container and shed. A very cute fenced goat run. Septic system has just been upgraded. All furniture is available for purchase, please ask agent. Come out and see this very special, very darling property.

19. 2021-09-16
    soldstatus $58,000

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Lovely project home looking for a handy new owner to continue all the great work that has been started. Home has been taken down to framing. Framing is all new. Some electrical and plumbing upgraded. Needs insulation, drywall, flooring, and any other upgrading desired. One acre of fenced horse property with a conex storage container and shed. A very cute fenced goat run. Septic system has just been upgraded. All furniture is available for purchase, please ask agent. Come out and see this very special, very darling property.

20. 2021-08-21
    status Pending 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Lovely project home looking for a handy new owner to continue all the great work that has been started. Home has been taken down to framing. Framing is all new. Some electrical and plumbing upgraded. Needs insulation, drywall, flooring, and any other upgrading desired. One acre of fenced horse property with a conex storage container and shed. A very cute fenced goat run. Septic system has just been upgraded. All furniture is available for purchase, please ask agent. Come out and see this very special, very darling property.

21. 2021-08-15
    price $59,000 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Lovely project home looking for a handy new owner to continue all the great work that has been started. Home has been taken down to framing. Framing is all new. Some electrical and plumbing upgraded. Needs insulation, drywall, flooring, and any other upgrading desired. One acre of fenced horse property with a conex storage container and shed. A very cute fenced goat run. Septic system has just been upgraded. All furniture is available for purchase, please ask agent. Come out and see this very special, very darling property.

22. 2021-08-05
    listed $65,000 Active 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Lovely project home looking for a handy new owner to continue all the great work that has been started. Home has been taken down to framing. Framing is all new. Some electrical and plumbing upgraded. Needs insulation, drywall, flooring, and any other upgrading desired. One acre of fenced horse property with a conex storage container and shed. A very cute fenced goat run. Septic system has just been upgraded. All furniture is available for purchase, please ask agent. Come out and see this very special, very darling property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $530 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,181 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$652/yr (+$54/mo · 123.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$530
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,911
• − Management: −$1,911
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $3,402
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$816
• After-tax cash flow: $5,361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista Southeast

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #15230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 14,154
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,876
• Household income: $91,654
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Black 2% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.13%
• Current HPI: 137.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+175.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $179,000 ARMLS
• 2021-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-16 Sold (MLS) $58,000 ARMLS
• 2021-08-21 Pending — ARMLS
• 2021-08-15 Price Changed $59,000 ARMLS
• 2021-08-05 Listed $65,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $530 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.