16238 Bergara Bend Dr · Cleveland, TX 77327

$198,890

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $137/sqft · 21% below area Est $250k · 21% under $192/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection in Timbers Edge! The Kitson plan with Elevation "J3" boasts a single-level home showcasing a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level home
• Open floorplan

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL HOME
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1804 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $179,053 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.95%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,490
• List price: $198,890
• Delta: -20.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16229 Bergara Bend Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	2mo	$235,990	$163	98
16238 Bergara Bend Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	1mo	$210,990	$145	88
16253 Bergara Bend Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	1mo	$202,990	$139	86
16503 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+5%)	0mo	$213,990	$141	85
16246 Bergara Bend Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	2mo	$231,990	$177	78
21540 Rustic Elm Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-0%)	1mo	$199,000	$138	77
16249 Bergara Bend Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	0mo	$208,990	$144	74
16554 Timberwolf Trl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+8%)	0mo	$248,990	$158	73
16214 Bergara Bend Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	0mo	$162,991	$124	72
16225 Bergara Bend Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	2mo	$260,990	$158	68
16558 Timberwolf Trl	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+13%)	0mo	$231,890	$142	66
20942 Canary Wood Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,545 (+6%)	1mo	$219,900	$142	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-38,976
• Equity at exit: $29,655

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-36,893
• Equity at exit: $17,196

Cash invested: $55,689 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 83 active · 45 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.8 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $236,990 ($147/sqft)
• Median days on market: 66 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1804
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,043
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,983/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,983

Max offer price $179,053

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $0	-5% $-68	+0% $-137	+5% $-206	+10% $-275
Rent	-10% $-280	-5% $-209	+0% $-137	+5% $-66	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-37	-0.5pp $-87	base $-137	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-241

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,722
• Closing costs: $5,967
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15171 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,650	$1.07	15d	1	0.64mi
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	73d	1	0.77mi
14255 Timber Fields Way Splendora, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,622	$0.90	1d	59	1.13mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Timbers Edge Community AssociationHOA fee $2,300 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-story (entry level: first floor)Facing information not specified
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lotComposition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 15)Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 12)Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 6 total roomsUnder construction (new construction)

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $198,890 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $198,890 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $198,890 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-05-18
   price $205,840 526-char remark
5. 2026-05-14
   price $209,690 526-char remark
6. 2026-05-14
   listed $235,990 Active 526-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,141
• − Property taxes: −$2,983
• − Insurance: −$994
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,737
• − Management: −$1,737
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$5,786
• Taxable loss: −$4,970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,193
• After-tax cash flow: $-452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 22 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,255–$21,765 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a spacious open floorplan and a private owner's suite. Potential buyers/renters can expect a good return on investment with minor updates to the exterior and interior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Upgrading the flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the bathrooms, making them more appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Piney Woods El F TX #2,982/4,322 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 713,896 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Timbers Edge Community AssociationHOA fee $2,300 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-story (entry level: first floor)Facing information not specified
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lotComposition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 15)Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 12)Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 6 total roomsUnder construction (new construction)

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $198,890 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $205,840 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $209,690 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $235,990 HARMLS