9827 Lorna Ln · Dellwood, MO 63136

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1951 7,501 sqft lot Est $65k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming single-family home nestled on a quiet residential street in Jennings. This well-situated property offers a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, ideal for both homeowners and investors alike. Enjoy a bright living area, spacious bedrooms, and a practical kitchen ready for your personal touch. The home sits on a level lot with a private backyard perfect for outdoor gatherings, gardening, or relaxing evenings. Conveniently located near local shopping, dining, schools, and major roadways, this property provides easy access to surrounding areas while maintaining a peaceful neighborhood feel. With public utilities, paved street access, and standard residentia

Key facts

• Bright living area
• Private backyard
• Paved street access

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• LEVEL LOT
• PAVED STREET ACCESS
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• BRIGHT LIVING AREA
• PRACTICAL KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 792 (source: public records)
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric: other
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story house; Entry level: main; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built (year sourced from public records)
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 125

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Other heating
• Interior features: Refrigerator included; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 10.4% in Dellwood — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#239 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Moline Elem. (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,058 of 1,115 statewide, top 96%, 295 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $80k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,701 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.68%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $64,944
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9828 Lorna Ln	0.03mi	2/1.0	792 (0%)	2mo	$65,000	$82	97
10020 Dellridge Ln	0.27mi	2/1.0	816 (+3%)	1mo	$49,900	$61	81
1829 Chambers Rd	0.38mi	2/1.0	816 (+3%)	2mo	$34,900	$43	76
9606 Lifford Ct	0.47mi	2/1.0	800 (+1%)	1mo	$130,000	$163	76
10035 Clairmont Dr	0.40mi	2/1.0	735 (-7%)	1mo	$74,900	$102	68
1512 Kappel Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0	874 (+10%)	4mo	$50,000	$57	68
9840 Green Valley Dr	0.61mi	2/1.0	816 (+3%)	2mo	$83,000	$102	65
1679 Maldon Ln	0.65mi	2/1.0	816 (+3%)	4mo	$85,000	$104	61
324 Gage Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0	875 (+10%)	1mo	$68,000	$78	59
9604 Winkler Dr	0.65mi	2/1.0	720 (-9%)	2mo	$39,000	$54	53
10038 Balboa Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+9%)	2mo	$49,900	$58	53
300 Royce Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0	875 (+10%)	5mo	$99,900	$114	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $43,617
• Equity at exit: $39,534

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $115,749
• Equity at exit: $63,893

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,226 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $901/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $668

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $487	-5% $464	+0% $441	+5% $419	+10% $396
Rent	-10% $345	-5% $393	+0% $441	+5% $490	+10% $538
Rate	-1.0pp $482	-0.5pp $462	base $441	+0.5pp $421	+1.0pp $400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	45d	1	0.06mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	45d	1	0.09mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	45d	1	0.12mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	45d	1	0.13mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	13d	1	0.13mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	45d	1	0.15mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	25d	1	0.17mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	45d	1	0.21mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	45d	1	0.33mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	25d	1	0.47mi
1550 Northwinds Estates Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	877	$1,050	$1.20	45d	1	0.49mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	45d	1	0.52mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	8d	1	0.52mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	45d	1	0.52mi
9547 Glen Owen Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	923	$985	$1.07	25d	1	0.56mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	8d	1	0.71mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	4d	1	0.71mi
104 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	25d	1	0.75mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	25d	1	0.75mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	45d	1	0.81mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	25d	1	0.81mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	45d	1	0.82mi
945 Edgehill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1110	$1,575	$1.42	45d	1	0.88mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	25d	1	0.91mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	25d	1	0.92mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	25d	1	0.93mi
502 Averill Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	45d	1	0.99mi
227 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	45d	1	1.01mi
296 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	16d	1	1.03mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	45d	1	1.04mi
920 Hutton Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	45d	1	1.08mi
249 S Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,220	$1.27	25d	1	1.09mi
307 Coppinger Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	19d	1	1.10mi
8908 Scottdale Ave Jennings, MO	2.0	1.0	790	$1,000	$1.27	45d	1	1.12mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	45d	1	1.15mi
415 Ames Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,400	$1.72	45d	1	1.19mi
650 Robert Ave Ferguson, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,224	$1.50	45d	1	1.23mi
8893 Maya Ln Jennings, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	600	$930	$1.55	25d	6	1.29mi
2617 Hord Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$775	$0.97	5d	1	1.32mi
6188 Dupree Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	972	$1,300	$1.34	45d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-27
    listed $79,900 Active
17. 2021-03-26
    soldstatus $34,750
18. 2004-11-02
    soldstatus $59,900
19. 1998-07-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $901 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $901 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$901
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,177
• − Management: −$1,177
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $4,262
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,023
• After-tax cash flow: $4,275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Dellwood

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #239
• US rank: #11618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+33.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $34,750 Public Records
• 2004-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 1998-07-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $901 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.