254 Meeting House Creek Rd · Aquebogue, NY 11901

$825,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition 0.46 ac lot $375/sqft · 8% below area Est $901k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfectly positioned at the gateway to both forks, this sun-drenched ranch offers a relaxed, lifestyle driven setting with space to unwind and entertain. The home features a bright, open layout filled with natural light, creating an easy flow between living spaces that feels both comfortable and inviting. It’s well suited for everyday living as well as summer fun. The backyard is designed for enjoyment, with room for large gatherings, your own basketball court, firepit, and spacious deck for relaxing or dining. Four bedrooms and two full baths provide flexibility for guests, extended family, or a home office. The location adds another layer of appeal. Just moments from a marina for boating access, with one of the best farmstands and waterfront dining just down the road. From here, you’re minutes to both the North Fork and Hamptons, offering easy access to beaches, vineyards, fine dining, golf courses, shopping, and more. A well-rounded offering that combines comfort, convenience, and a true connection to the surrounding lifestyle.

Key facts

• Firepit
• Basketball court
• Spacious deck

Tags

• BASKETBALL COURT
• FIREPIT
• SPACIOUS DECK
• MARINA FOR BOATING ACCESS
• EASY ACCESS TO BEACHES
• EASY ACCESS TO VINEYARDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $825k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($111k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $825k).
• Recommended offer: $776k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#887 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $231k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($776k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $570k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $775,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.03%
• DSCR: 3.14
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $900,844
• List price: $825,000
• Delta: -8.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
170 Grant Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,129 (-3%)	18mo	$905,000	$425	77
133 Trout Brook Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,301 (+5%)	2mo	$780,000	$339	76
117 Trout Brook Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,156 (-2%)	2mo	$757,350	$351	74
97 Grant Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,900 (-14%)	9mo	$950,000	$500	63
34 Colonial Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,950 (-11%)	18mo	$867,000	$445	60
29 Linda Ave	0.34mi	4/3.0	1,900 (-14%)	5mo	$670,000	$353	54
195 Linda Ave	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,950 (-11%)	21mo	$725,000	$372	53
153 Fox Run Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-14%)	17mo	$775,000	$408	38
9 Terry	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,000 (-9%)	14mo	$700,000	$350	32
2 Bluegrass Ct	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,486 (+13%)	19mo	$850,000	$342	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $455,463
• Equity at exit: $123,010

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $1,156,024
• Equity at exit: $71,331

Cash invested: $231,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,326
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,031 /mo · $12,375/yr
• Insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,973
• Net cashflow: $9,246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,217

Max offer price $825,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $206,250
• Closing costs: $24,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
97 Grant DR Aquebogue, NY	3.0	2.5	1900	$20,000	$10.53	43d	1	0.04mi
123 Broad Ave Riverhead, NY	5.0	3.0	2367	$20,000	$8.45	18d	1	0.08mi
807 Union Ave Riverhead, NY	4.0	2.5	2552	$9,000	$3.53	43d	1	0.44mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-21
   historical $8,000
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $825,000 Active 1058-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

   Perfectly positioned at the gateway to both forks, this sun-drenched ranch offers a relaxed, lifestyle driven setting with space to unwind and entertain. The home features a bright, open layout filled with natural light, creating an easy flow between living spaces that feels both comfortable and inviting. It’s well suited for everyday living as well as summer fun. The backyard is designed for enjoyment, with room for large gatherings, your own basketball court, firepit, and spacious deck for relaxing or dining. Four bedrooms and two full baths provide flexibility for guests, extended family, or a home office. The location adds another layer of appeal. Just moments from a marina for boating access, with one of the best farmstands and waterfront dining just down the road. From here, you’re minutes to both the North Fork and Hamptons, offering easy access to beaches, vineyards, fine dining, golf courses, shopping, and more. A well-rounded offering that combines comfort, convenience, and a true connection to the surrounding lifestyle.

3. 2025-06-06
   price $8,000
4. 2025-03-13
   listed $10,000
5. 2024-06-19
   historical $10,000
6. 2024-02-15
   price $10,000
7. 2023-12-19
   listed $32,000
8. 2020-12-16
   soldstatus $570,000 Closed 683-char remark

   Show marketing remark (683 chars)

   Wait until you walk into this fantastic ranch in Aquebogue! Cathedral ceilings, open concept, all move in ready with an adorable and spacious backyard with a deck, gardens, basketball court, outside shower, shed, and a huge 2 car detached garage. This 4 bedroom home features 2 fireplaces, a lovely master bedroom ensuite with an extra sitting room leading out to the back deck. Plenty of space to entertain and enjoy all the North Fork has to offer. Beach, farm stands, and the town is all super close by. Extra bonus are the solar panels completely owned supplying you an electric bill of only $14.00 a month!, Additional information: Appearance:Fantastic,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

9. 2020-10-02
   listed $559,000 Active 683-char remark

   Show marketing remark (683 chars)

   Wait until you walk into this fantastic ranch in Aquebogue! Cathedral ceilings, open concept, all move in ready with an adorable and spacious backyard with a deck, gardens, basketball court, outside shower, shed, and a huge 2 car detached garage. This 4 bedroom home features 2 fireplaces, a lovely master bedroom ensuite with an extra sitting room leading out to the back deck. Plenty of space to entertain and enjoy all the North Fork has to offer. Beach, farm stands, and the town is all super close by. Extra bonus are the solar panels completely owned supplying you an electric bill of only $14.00 a month!, Additional information: Appearance:Fantastic,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $227,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,213
• − Property taxes: −$12,375
• − Insurance: −$4,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,164
• − Management: −$18,164
• − Depreciation: −$24,000
• Taxable income: $104,004
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24,961
• After-tax cash flow: $85,987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained ranch home offers a bright, open layout with modern updates and a spacious backyard perfect for entertaining and relaxation.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aquebogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #17213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aquebogue, NY
• City population: 24
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-98.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Rental Removed $8,000 ONEKEY
• 2026-03-16 Listed $825,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $8,000 ONEKEY
• 2025-03-13 Listed for Rent $10,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-06-19 Rental Removed $10,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-02-15 Price Changed $10,000 ONEKEY
• 2023-12-19 Listed for Rent $32,000 ONEKEY
• 2020-12-16 Sold (MLS) $570,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-02 Listed $559,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid