16015 E Wildcat Dr · Rio Verde, AZ 85262

$494,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,637 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2020 1.03 ac lot Est $501k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

EXCLUSIVE FINANCING OPPORTUNITY! Seller and preferred lender have partnered to offer a 2/1 temporary rate buydown with introductory rates starting in the 4%'s. Wake up to panoramic mountain views and experience the wide-open lifestyle that makes Rio Verde one of North Scottsdale's hidden gems. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers the perfect blend of modern construction and rural Arizona living with NO HOA. The home features a thoughtfully designed open concept layout where the living, dining, and kitchen spaces come together seamlessly. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, generous cabinet storage, a walk-in pantry, and an oversized workspace ideal for both everyday l

Key facts

• Oversized workspace
• Split floor plan
• Open concept layout

Tags

• PANORAMIC MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• OVERSIZED WORKSPACE
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Water hauled
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Natural desert landscaping front and back; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Hard/low nap floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity; 9+ foot flat ceilings; No interior steps; Kitchen island; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $438k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $438k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.7% in Rio Verde — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#194 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Black Mountain Elementary School (math 66% / reading 63%, grade B, #104 of 1,109 statewide, top 10%, 495 students, 8% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 588 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $437,896 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.95%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $500,922
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16023 E Rancho Tierra Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-4%)	2mo	$545,000	$346	81
16025 E Rancho Laredo Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,795 (+10%)	11mo	$560,000	$312	64
16214 E Dixileta Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,639 (+0%)	4mo	$495,000	$302	62
16029 E Rancho Laredo Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,795 (+10%)	11mo	$550,000	$306	52
16206 E Dixileta Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-4%)	8mo	$525,000	$333	49
31617 N 164th St	0.63mi	3/3.5	1,702 (+4%)	20mo	$370,000	$217	45
30020 N 164th St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-13%)	22mo	$425,000	$298	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-44,020
• Equity at exit: $73,791

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $7,523
• Equity at exit: $42,790

Cash invested: $138,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85262

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 588
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,379 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,595
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,029/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$920
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,655

Max offer price $494,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,725
• Closing costs: $14,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $494,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $494,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $494,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $494,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $494,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $494,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,029 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,266 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,237/yr (+$186/mo · 217.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,029
• − Insurance: −$2,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,204
• − Management: −$4,204
• − Depreciation: −$14,397
• Taxable loss: −$1,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$356
• After-tax cash flow: $7,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Verde

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #194
• US rank: #19880

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,329
• Household income: $177,790
• Rent vs Own: 3.1% rent · 96.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.65%
• Current HPI: 286.3814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+19735.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $494,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-12 Rental Removed $2,495 RENTLY
• 2025-10-11 Listed for Rent $2,495 RENTLY
• 2025-10-10 Rental Removed $2,495 ARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed for Rent $2,495 ARMLS
• 2025-01-16 Rental Removed $1,999 RENTLY
• 2025-01-14 Listed for Rent $1,999 RENTLY
• 2025-01-13 Rental Removed $1,999 ARMLS
• 2025-01-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $1,999 ARMLS
• 2024-12-28 Listed $499,900 ARMLS
• 2024-12-27 Price Changed $2,200 ARMLS
• 2024-12-19 Listed for Rent $2,495 ARMLS

Property tax history

+48.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,029 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.