Elder Plan · Barboursville, VA 22923

$419,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,203 sqft · SingleFamily · 336 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Creekside 2-Story: resort-style, amenity-filled community of two-story single-family homes with 2-car garages, less than 10 minutes from Charlottesville. The Elder has it all. Step inside this 2-car garage single-family home, where a sprawling great room adjoins a gourmet kitchen with a large island that overlooks the dining area. A versatile flex room is ideal for a home office, hobby area or play space. Upstairs, two guest bedrooms each feature a walk-in closet and share a hall bath with a third guest bedroom. Inside your owner's suite, you'll find a luxurious dual-vanity bath and two walk-in closets. Entertain family and guests in the 2nd floor loft, or choose to convert the space to a f

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Gourmet kitchen
• Dual-vanity bath

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• FLEX ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL-VANITY BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $419,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $464,466.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-496 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $393k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $343k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $343k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ruckersville Elementary (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C+, #583 of 1,108 statewide, top 53%, 506 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $343,498 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $464,466
• List price: $419,990
• Delta: -9.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
57 Everglades Rd	0.26mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,203 (0%)	6mo	$480,320	$218	78
94 Everglades Rd	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	4mo	$424,760	$223	64
140 Gunnison Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,925 (-13%)	2mo	$465,000	$242	63
56 Everglades Rd	0.15mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	6mo	$445,065	$234	60
77 Everglades Rd	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	6mo	$451,130	$237	60
195 Arches Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	6mo	$411,325	$216	60
27 Everglades Rd	0.28mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	2mo	$416,980	$219	58
47 Everglades Rd	0.30mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	2mo	$421,480	$221	57
107 Everglades Rd	0.30mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	3mo	$435,310	$229	56
92 Everglades Rd	0.31mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	3mo	$419,990	$221	55
82 Everglades Rd	0.31mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	4mo	$451,815	$237	54
87 Everglades Rd	0.35mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	4mo	$438,055	$230	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-106,814
• Equity at exit: $69,253

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-133,494
• Equity at exit: $40,159

Cash invested: $130,050 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,435 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,436
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$581 /mo · $6,967/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$721
• Net cashflow: $-496

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,063

Max offer price $392,667

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-175	-5% $-336	+0% $-496	+5% $-657	+10% $-817
Rent	-10% $-768	-5% $-632	+0% $-496	+5% $-361	+10% $-225
Rate	-1.0pp $-262	-0.5pp $-378	base $-496	+0.5pp $-617	+1.0pp $-739

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,116
• Closing costs: $13,934
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
92 Everglades RD Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.5	1903	$2,795	$1.47	14d	1	0.31mi
54 Mannie Ct Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,600	$1.55	14d	1	0.76mi
100 Fir Tree Ln Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.5	2802	$3,100	$1.11	7d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $419,990 Active 336 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $419,990 Active 334 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,990 Active 333 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,990 Active 332 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,990 Active 331 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $419,990 Active 330 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $414,990 Active 328 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $414,990 Active 327 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $414,990 Active 325 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $414,990 Active 324 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $414,990 Active 323 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $414,990 Active 322 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $414,990 Active 319 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $414,990 Active 318 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $414,990 Active 317 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $414,990 Active 316 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $414,990 Active 315 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,990 Active 314 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,017
• − Property taxes: −$6,967
• − Insurance: −$2,322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,298
• − Management: −$3,298
• − Depreciation: −$13,512
• Taxable loss: −$14,194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,407
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Barboursville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 21,992 people
• City population: 6,435
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B