234 Wilcox Rd · Stamford, NY 13786

$199,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 227 Days on market

Built 1850 3.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

No reasonable offer will be refused.Calling all renovators, dreamers, and DIY enthusiasts! This spacious 4-bedroom home is brimming with untapped potential, just waiting for a 'fix-it' hero to bring it back to its former glory. Brand new furnace and hot water heater. The roof on barn does need to be repaired and there is a slight foundation issue. Sprawling across 4 private acres, complete with a classic barn and machine shed, the possibilities are endless: Escape: Create your perfect country retreat, far from the hustle of city life. Cultivate: Start a thriving hobby farm or boutique vineyard. Dream: Transform the outbuildings into a workshop, art studio, or event space. Don't just buy a house, buy a lifestyle. This is your chance to restore a piece of the countryside and make your mark!

Key facts

• Private acres
• Hot water heater
• Classic barn

Tags

• BRAND NEW FURNACE
• HOT WATER HEATER
• CLASSIC BARN
• MACHINE SHED
• PRIVATE ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-519 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $108k (45.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (32.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 5.3% in Stamford — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#574 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Stamford Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #675 of 755 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $107,665 (45.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.18%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $614,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
520 Fenn Hill Rd	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,635 (+10%)	4mo	$675,000	$256	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $47,831
• Equity at exit: $149,876

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $163,586
• Equity at exit: $296,261

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13786

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,337 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$449 /mo · $5,383/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,994

Max offer price $107,665

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-406	-5% $-463	+0% $-519	+5% $-575	+10% $-632
Rent	-10% $-625	-5% $-572	+0% $-519	+5% $-466	+10% $-413
Rate	-1.0pp $-419	-0.5pp $-468	base $-519	+0.5pp $-571	+1.0pp $-623

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 227 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 210 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 209 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 208 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 207 DOM
16. 2026-03-11
    price $199,000 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    No reasonable offer will be refused.Calling all renovators, dreamers, and DIY enthusiasts! This spacious 4-bedroom home is brimming with untapped potential, just waiting for a 'fix-it' hero to bring it back to its former glory. Brand new furnace and hot water heater. The roof on barn does need to be repaired and there is a slight foundation issue. Sprawling across 4 private acres, complete with a classic barn and machine shed, the possibilities are endless: Escape: Create your perfect country retreat, far from the hustle of city life. Cultivate: Start a thriving hobby farm or boutique vineyard. Dream: Transform the outbuildings into a workshop, art studio, or event space. Don't just buy a house, buy a lifestyle. This is your chance to restore a piece of the countryside and make your mark!

17. 2026-01-27
    price $229,000 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    No reasonable offer will be refused.Calling all renovators, dreamers, and DIY enthusiasts! This spacious 4-bedroom home is brimming with untapped potential, just waiting for a 'fix-it' hero to bring it back to its former glory. Brand new furnace and hot water heater. The roof on barn does need to be repaired and there is a slight foundation issue. Sprawling across 4 private acres, complete with a classic barn and machine shed, the possibilities are endless: Escape: Create your perfect country retreat, far from the hustle of city life. Cultivate: Start a thriving hobby farm or boutique vineyard. Dream: Transform the outbuildings into a workshop, art studio, or event space. Don't just buy a house, buy a lifestyle. This is your chance to restore a piece of the countryside and make your mark!

18. 2025-11-05
    listed $249,000 Active 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    No reasonable offer will be refused.Calling all renovators, dreamers, and DIY enthusiasts! This spacious 4-bedroom home is brimming with untapped potential, just waiting for a 'fix-it' hero to bring it back to its former glory. Brand new furnace and hot water heater. The roof on barn does need to be repaired and there is a slight foundation issue. Sprawling across 4 private acres, complete with a classic barn and machine shed, the possibilities are endless: Escape: Create your perfect country retreat, far from the hustle of city life. Cultivate: Start a thriving hobby farm or boutique vineyard. Dream: Transform the outbuildings into a workshop, art studio, or event space. Don't just buy a house, buy a lifestyle. This is your chance to restore a piece of the countryside and make your mark!

19. 2020-06-30
    listed $148,900
20. 2019-11-15
    listed $149,000
21. 2018-11-30
    listed $149,000
22. 2017-01-07
    listed $169,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,383 · $449/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,383 · $449/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$5,383
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,283
• − Management: −$1,283
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$9,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,361
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,867/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stamford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,968
• Composite: 34.29/100
• National rank: #10231
• State rank: #675 of 755 in NY

Livability — Stamford

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #574
• US rank: #10332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 440

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,668 people
• By 2030: 40,337 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 35,514 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 31,265 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -42.7%
• By 2100: 19,529 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 10% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 17% Italian 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 40.1% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+9.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.90%
• Current HPI: 393.1833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+17.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $199,000 Global MLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $229,000 Global MLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $249,000 Global MLS
• 2020-06-30 Listed $148,900 UNYREIS
• 2019-11-15 Listed $149,000 UNYREIS
• 2018-11-30 Listed $149,000 UNYREIS
• 2017-01-07 Listed $169,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,383 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.