404 N 42nd St · Louisville, KY 40212

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily · 82 Days on market

Built 1951 5,662 sqft lot Est $93k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TO BE SOLD AS IS - FENCED YARD W/ SHED - UPDATED KITCHEN - GOOD RENTAL

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1951

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 140 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.82%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $93,450
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 N 41st St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,082 (+3%)	12mo	$168,000	$155	75
3924 Garfield Ave	0.13mi	2/1.0	972 (-7%)	8mo	$57,500	$59	75
4109 Bank St	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	990 (-6%)	3mo	$157,325	$159	74
356 N 43rd St	0.09mi	2/1.0	1,200 (+14%)	1mo	$95,000	$79	71
125 N 46th St	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,107 (+5%)	6mo	$95,000	$86	69
212 N 37th St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,036 (-1%)	8mo	$121,000	$117	68
100 Boston Ct	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+3%)	9mo	$35,000	$32	67
3801 Miami Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (+7%)	10mo	$134,900	$120	57
127 N 39th St	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,197 (+14%)	8mo	$80,000	$67	53
210 N 35th St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,119 (+7%)	7mo	$100,000	$89	52
4611 W Market St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,134 (+8%)	11mo	$155,000	$137	47
117 N 34th St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,130 (+8%)	4mo	$34,000	$30	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $63,545
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.99×
• Total profit: $166,415
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40212

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,121 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,084/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $723

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3910 Garfield Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	872	$1,035	$1.19	3d	1	0.16mi
313 N 42nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	3d	1	0.19mi
3901 Jewell Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1069	$1,140	$1.07	20d	1	0.21mi
127 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,570	$1.05	3d	1	0.34mi
106 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1325	$1,220	$0.92	3d	1	0.38mi
219 N 37th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	23d	1	0.41mi
320 N 36th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	830	$1,225	$1.48	15d	1	0.44mi
127 Boston Ct Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	725	$1,100	$1.52	23d	1	0.44mi
4143 W Market St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	23d	1	0.46mi
4141 W Market St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	771	$925	$1.20	2d	1	0.47mi
112 S 46th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	902	$1,200	$1.33	23d	1	0.48mi
110 Hansbrough Pl Unit 101 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	924	$1,080	$1.17	23d	1	0.55mi
247 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,305	$1.20	19d	1	0.62mi
302 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	984	$1,025	$1.04	15d	1	0.66mi
4020 Larkwood Ave Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	1446	$785	$0.54	23d	1	0.78mi
3120 Bank St Unit B Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$795	$1.06	23d	1	0.89mi
4018 Vermont Ave Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$699	$1.00	3d	1	0.93mi
2925 Slevin St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	896	$775	$0.86	3d	1	0.96mi
509 N 31st St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$795	$0.99	23d	1	0.96mi
509 N 31st St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$725	$0.91	15d	1	0.96mi
2927 Rowan St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,205	$1.20	11d	1	0.99mi
3819 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1108	$1,090	$0.98	20d	1	1.00mi
628 S 39th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1448	$1,220	$0.84	15d	1	1.11mi
3421 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	994	$1,250	$1.26	23d	1	1.13mi
807 E Main St New Albany, IN	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	19d	1	1.13mi
522 N 29th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1031	$1,300	$1.26	3d	1	1.15mi
644 S 40th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	2d	1	1.18mi
2906 Montgomery St Unit B Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,060	$0.92	23d	1	1.19mi
4309 Elliott Ave Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$650	$0.87	3d	1	1.20mi
4309 Elliott Ave Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$695	$0.93	23d	1	1.20mi
309 E Spring St Unit 310-203 New Albany, IN	2.0	2.5	1005	$1,250	$1.24	3d	1	1.21mi
309 E Spring St Unit 310-106 New Albany, IN	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,250	$1.24	17d	1	1.21mi
608 E Spring St Unit 2 New Albany, IN	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	23d	1	1.21mi
608 E Spring St Unit 2 New Albany, IN	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	3d	1	1.21mi
1201 Dewey St #3 New Albany, IN	1.0	1.0	700	$775	$1.11	17d	1	1.21mi
648 S 37th St #3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	807	$850	$1.05	23d	1	1.24mi
353 N 27th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	23d	1	1.24mi
652 N 29th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1127	$1,350	$1.20	17d	1	1.24mi
652 S 37th St #9 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,095	$1.02	23d	1	1.25mi
1307 E Market St #1 New Albany, IN	2.0	1.0	936	$1,190	$1.27	17d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2023-11-13
   status Pending
2. 2022-10-25
   soldstatus $86,000
3. 2022-08-31
   status Pending
4. 2022-07-28
   status Active
5. 2022-06-21
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2022-06-10
   listed $85,000 Active
7. 2001-08-13
   historical
8. 2001-02-13
   listed $45,000
9. 1999-02-08
   soldstatus $24,000 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   TO BE SOLD AS IS - FENCED YARD W/ SHED - UPDATED KITCHEN - GOOD RENTAL

10. 1999-01-02
    listed $28,000 70-char remark

    Show marketing remark (70 chars)

    TO BE SOLD AS IS - FENCED YARD W/ SHED - UPDATED KITCHEN - GOOD RENTAL

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,084 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,084 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,084
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,552
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$613
• After-tax cash flow: $3,153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,661
• Household income: $35,753
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1148.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 37% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 293.2624
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+207.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2023-11-13 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2022-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-31 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2022-07-28 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2022-06-21 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2022-06-10 Listed $85,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2001-08-13 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2001-02-13 Listed $45,000 Metro Search MLS
• 1999-02-08 Sold (MLS) $24,000 Metro Search MLS
• 1999-01-02 Listed $28,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,084 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.