236 Forest Rd W · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$550,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2006 10,019 sqft lot $407/sqft · 72% above area Est $556k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Versatile 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home with multigenerational living! The main level features 3 generously sized bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a bright living space, and the convenience of in-home laundry. The fully renovated lower level (2023) adds incredible value with 2 additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a bonus room— With two separate driveways, this home provides added convenience and ample parking for multiple vehicles. Perfect for extended living or those in need of extra space, this property offers endless possibilities!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 2006
• Listed 52 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (44.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $411k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $306k (44.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $59k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $55k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$95k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($534k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $443k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $305,633 (44.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.19%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $556,232
• List price: $550,000
• Delta: -1.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
99 Lynbrook Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,357 (+0%)	7mo	$375,000	$276	68
6 Victoria Pl	0.56mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (+9%)	4mo	$470,000	$320	47
17 Orient Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,467 (+8%)	18mo	$525,000	$358	43
277 Commack Rd	0.74mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-11%)	5mo	$450,000	$375	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $212,015
• Equity at exit: $495,484

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $694,774
• Equity at exit: $1,068,529

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,114 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$1,060 /mo · $12,719/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$864
• Net cashflow: $-1,383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,865

Max offer price $305,633

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Fairview Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1302	$4,299	$3.30	3d	1	0.82mi
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	1d	1	0.90mi
192 Cypress Dr Mastic Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,800	$2.71	44d	1	1.18mi
44 Pine Tree Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$4,200	$2.62	1d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-06
   listed $550,000 Active 543-char remark

   Show marketing remark (543 chars)

   Versatile 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home with multigenerational living! The main level features 3 generously sized bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a bright living space, and the convenience of in-home laundry. The fully renovated lower level (2023) adds incredible value with 2 additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a bonus room— With two separate driveways, this home provides added convenience and ample parking for multiple vehicles. Perfect for extended living or those in need of extra space, this property offers endless possibilities!

2. 2023-09-11
   soldstatus $443,000
3. 2023-07-07
   soldstatus $443,000 Closed 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   This very large Colonial offers great space for extended family, features, hardwood floors, 5 Bedrooms, 3 full baths, newer kitchen cabinets, brand new Boiler system and above ground oil tank, Oversized driveway for parking, fenced yard, rear upper deck, Possible mother/daughter with proper permits!, Additional information: Appearance:excellent,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

4. 2023-03-31
   status Pending 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   This very large Colonial offers great space for extended family, features, hardwood floors, 5 Bedrooms, 3 full baths, newer kitchen cabinets, brand new Boiler system and above ground oil tank, Oversized driveway for parking, fenced yard, rear upper deck, Possible mother/daughter with proper permits!, Additional information: Appearance:excellent,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

5. 2022-12-30
   price $449,000 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   This very large Colonial offers great space for extended family, features, hardwood floors, 5 Bedrooms, 3 full baths, newer kitchen cabinets, brand new Boiler system and above ground oil tank, Oversized driveway for parking, fenced yard, rear upper deck, Possible mother/daughter with proper permits!, Additional information: Appearance:excellent,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

6. 2022-11-21
   listed $470,000 Active 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   This very large Colonial offers great space for extended family, features, hardwood floors, 5 Bedrooms, 3 full baths, newer kitchen cabinets, brand new Boiler system and above ground oil tank, Oversized driveway for parking, fenced yard, rear upper deck, Possible mother/daughter with proper permits!, Additional information: Appearance:excellent,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

7. 2008-07-23
   soldstatus $229,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,719 · $1,060/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,719 · $1,060/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$12,719
• − Insurance: −$8,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,950
• − Management: −$3,950
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$26,328
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,319
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+139.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $550,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $443,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-07 Sold (MLS) $443,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-31 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-30 Price Changed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-21 Listed $470,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $229,990 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,719 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.