106 Lincoln Dr · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$351,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,624 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1972 0.48 ac lot Est $359k · at est. $250/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Custom View House Fire pit and fenced in garden area Room for the whole family. This lovely home is perfect for entertaining, featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths. master bedroom suite with jacuzzi tub. Kitchen, dining, living area with beautiful oak floors, lots of glass, skylights, T & G wood cathedral ceilings and large brick fireplace. Family room for the children and entertaining room for the adults and guests to enjoy, or relax in the large 3 season room. Don't forget the large storage/exercise area with sauna.

Key facts

• Three season room
• Wooded views
• Wraparound decking

Tags

• MOUNTAIN CONTEMPORARY RETREAT
• DRAMATIC WALL OF GLASS
• THREE SEASON ROOM
• WRAPAROUND DECKING
• WOODED VIEWS
• FIRE PIT GATHERING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: PA-739 then Hemlock Farms Rd to Country Club Dr to Lincoln Dr
• HOA & community: Part of an HOA (Hemlock Farms); Annual association fee; Association amenities include pool (indoor and outdoor), heated pool, spa/hot tub, sauna, clubhouse, fitness center, tennis and basketball courts, trails, park, lake access, fishing, picnic areas, dog park, recreation and meeting rooms, billiard room, beach rights/access, parking, maintenance, trash removal, snow removal, security, gated community, management

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (paved)
• Security: Gated community with security gate and guarded entry
• Utilities: 200+ amp electric service; Cable available and connected; Water connected; Electricity connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; House; Has view
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Built on two levels
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Storage shed and workshop; Private entrance; Deck with wrap-around enclosed porch; Community lake view; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Electric oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 9 rooms (see room layout for bedroom count)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Propane heating; Hot water heating; Wall/window air conditioning units; Has fireplace with gas log in living room (masonry)
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Open floor plan; Sauna; Finished walk-out, walk-up basement; Basement is full
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry room on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $352k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $875 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $352k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $289k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $351,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.67%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,488
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 Washington Dr	0.39mi	3/3.0	2,617 (-0%)	8mo	$450,000	$172	73
124 Portage Lane Ln	0.34mi	3/2.5	2,844 (+8%)	6mo	$305,000	$107	66
143 Washington Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,320 (-12%)	15mo	$305,000	$131	58
216 Canterbrook Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	2,805 (+7%)	1mo	$350,000	$125	57
802 Paddock Ct	0.30mi	3/2.5	2,348 (-10%)	14mo	$455,000	$194	56
206 Country Club Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	2,396 (-9%)	24mo	$415,000	$173	54
203 Lincoln Dr	0.30mi	3/3.0	2,936 (+12%)	23mo	$385,000	$131	45
205 Waterview Dr	0.72mi	3/3.0	2,880 (+10%)	9mo	$395,000	$137	41
110 Gaskin Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	2,815 (+7%)	22mo	$460,000	$163	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $247,398
• Equity at exit: $316,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.96×
• Total profit: $685,152
• Equity at exit: $682,887

Cash invested: $98,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,499 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,843
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$439 /mo · $5,272/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $875

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,391

Max offer price $351,500

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,875
• Closing costs: $10,545
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
142 Eisenhower Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2764	$5,000	$1.81	1d	1	0.56mi
402 Canoe Brook Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2055	$3,500	$1.70	1d	1	0.93mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $351,500 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $351,500 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $351,500 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $351,500 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $351,500 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-14
   listed $351,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,689
• − Property taxes: −$5,272
• − Insurance: −$1,758
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,319
• − Management: −$4,319
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$10,225
• Taxable income: $5,406
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,297
• After-tax cash flow: $9,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+21.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $351,500 PWMLS
• 2022-08-19 Sold (MLS) $289,000 PWMLS
• 2022-08-19 Sold (MLS) — PWMLS
• 2022-06-09 Listed $289,000 PWMLS
• 2022-06-09 Listed $289,000 PWMLS