178 Locust Dr · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$299,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 580 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1937 7,841 sqft lot $517/sqft · 10% below area Est $334k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling All Investors! LOW Taxes , Central Air, Attached garage, New Walkway and driveway (1 year old) ..Current tenant would love to stay.. Home can be part of package deal with 5 other homes too!! Be the 1st!

Key facts

• New driveway
• New walkway
• Central air

Tags

• CENTRAL AIR
• NEW WALKWAY
• NEW DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.7% in Mastic Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $300k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.18%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,938
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -10.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Mckinley Dr	0.22mi	2/1.0	520 (-10%)	10mo	$328,000	$631	65
202 Forest Rd W	0.72mi	2/1.0	560 (-3%)	7mo	$230,000	$411	55
204 Whittier Dr	0.62mi	2/1.0	560 (-3%)	18mo	$337,000	$602	50
129 Beaver Dr	0.51mi	1/1.0 (-1)	536 (-8%)	13mo	$249,500	$465	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $182,031
• Equity at exit: $270,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.21×
• Total profit: $521,380
• Equity at exit: $582,815

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,529

Max offer price $299,990

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Cedar Rd E Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	740	$2,900	$3.92	1d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-03-16
    listed $299,990 Active 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Calling All Investors! LOW Taxes , Central Air, Attached garage, New Walkway and driveway (1 year old) ..Current tenant would love to stay.. Home can be part of package deal with 5 other homes too!! Be the 1st!

16. 2019-12-04
    soldstatus $160,000
17. 2019-11-22
    soldstatus $160,000
18. 2019-10-31
    soldstatus $160,000 Closed 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Charming 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath, 1 Car Garage Move In Ready Ranch Style Cottage. Recent Updates Include Roof, Kitchen Counters & Cabinets, Appliances, Full Bath And Electric Heating System. A Must See Home. Located Near Beach, Boating, Shopping And Public Transportation. Call Today For Private Showing, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

19. 2019-08-07
    status Under Contract 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Charming 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath, 1 Car Garage Move In Ready Ranch Style Cottage. Recent Updates Include Roof, Kitchen Counters & Cabinets, Appliances, Full Bath And Electric Heating System. A Must See Home. Located Near Beach, Boating, Shopping And Public Transportation. Call Today For Private Showing, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

20. 2019-07-21
    listed $159,900 New 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Charming 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath, 1 Car Garage Move In Ready Ranch Style Cottage. Recent Updates Include Roof, Kitchen Counters & Cabinets, Appliances, Full Bath And Electric Heating System. A Must See Home. Located Near Beach, Boating, Shopping And Public Transportation. Call Today For Private Showing, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

21. 2007-07-10
    soldstatus $148,053

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,600 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,335 · $361/mo
• Expected delta: +$735/yr (+$61/mo · 20.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,784
• − Management: −$2,784
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$1,399
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$336
• After-tax cash flow: $3,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+102.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $299,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-31 Sold (MLS) $160,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-21 Listed $159,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $148,053 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,600 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.