460 Cedar Dr · Forked River, NJ 08734

$1,060,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2000 0.25 ac lot $434/sqft · 25% above area Est $847k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated adjacent a national wildlife preserve with bay views and privacy in this quiet waterfront living area. This home offers an endless amount of opportunities. The spacious kitchen with new granite countertops and breakfast bar for optimal entertaining space. There is a formal dining room as well as space for eat in kitchen table. Enjoy those colder nights in front of the fireplace in the spacious living room. Upstairs you will find 4 generous sized bedrooms all with water views. You will enjoy the beautiful updated bathrooms with tiled showers and the primary bath offers a soaking tub with water views. The oversized workshop is a dream for the handy person or home business it offers w

Key facts

• Water views
• Formal dining room
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• BAY VIEWS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• WATER VIEWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Waterfront property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating with 2 heat zones; 2-zone air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Fireplace; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.06M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($82k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $1.06M).
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $32k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $297k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $1.06M implies a 2501% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,060,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.26%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $846,571
• List price: $1,060,000
• Delta: 29.94%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 Laurel Blvd	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,290 (-6%)	7mo	$795,000	$347	76
825 Laurel Blvd	0.28mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,450 (+0%)	11mo	$950,000	$388	72
1005 Plimsoll Pt	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,394 (-2%)	4mo	$806,000	$337	63
—	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,152 (-12%)	15mo	$245,000	$114	58
307 Cedar Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,160 (-12%)	2mo	$491,000	$227	54
714 Laurel Blvd	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,083 (-15%)	10mo	$710,000	$341	52
227 Predmore Ave	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,310 (-5%)	11mo	$452,000	$196	50
201 Hemlock Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,436 (-0%)	21mo	$485,000	$199	47
—	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,310 (-5%)	21mo	$575,000	$249	45
202 Cedar Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,128 (-13%)	5mo	$454,250	$213	38
406 Laurel Blvd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,170 (-11%)	20mo	$540,000	$249	35
825 Oxgoose Dr	0.68mi	4/4.0	2,805 (+15%)	11mo	$849,900	$303	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $262,343
• Equity at exit: $158,049

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $788,364
• Equity at exit: $91,649

Cash invested: $296,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08734

• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,029 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,559
• Tax from tax record: −$1,006 /mo · $12,067/yr
• Insurance: −$442
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,786
• Net cashflow: $6,811

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,408

Max offer price $1,060,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $265,000
• Closing costs: $31,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
406 Lawrence Dr Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	2.0	1836	$16,000	$8.71	1d	1	0.43mi
821 Bunnell St Lanoka Harbor, NJ	5.0	3.5	3012	$20,000	$6.64	15d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,060,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on marketlisting id $1,060,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-04-24
   listed $1,100,000 Active 800-char remark
4. 1998-06-30
   soldstatus $40,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,067 · $1,006/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,230 · $1,603/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,164/yr (+$597/mo · 59.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $216,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$59,376
• − Property taxes: −$12,067
• − Insurance: −$10,418
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,308
• − Management: −$17,308
• − Depreciation: −$30,836
• Taxable income: $69,037
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,569
• After-tax cash flow: $65,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,028

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.83%
• Current HPI: 368.8557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+2501.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $1,060,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $1,100,000 MOMLS
• 1998-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $40,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,067 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.