L11B3 Fales Rd · Tok, AK 99780

$70,000

1 bd · None ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 2000 Fair condition 5.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Cabin with well on 5 private acres set up for generator power, offering a great opportunity for off-grid Alaska living. Heated with a wood stove, the cabin features a separate bedroom and kitchen, plus a loft area above the kitchen and bathroom that provides additional space for sleeping or storage. A large gravel area has been cleared around the cabin, creating usable outdoor space with easy. .. . Cabin with well on 5 private acres set up for generator power, offering a great opportunity for off-grid Alaska living. Heated with a wood stove, the cabin features a separate bedroom and kitchen, plus a loft area above the kitchen and bathroom that provides additional space for sleeping or stora

Key facts

• Private acres
• Wood stove
• Separate bedroom

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• GENERATOR POWER
• WOOD STOVE
• SEPARATE BEDROOM
• KITCHEN
• LOFT AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing broker: Debbie Joslin Realty, LLC; Listing agent: Stephanie Creviston
• Financial info: No financial details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: No sewer service
• Home design: Residential property; Not attached; Built in 2000
• Construction: Year built 2000
• Exterior features: 5-acre lot; Directions: Alaska Highway to Fales, turn left on the first road; cabin is on the right

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen details provided
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: No bathrooms listed
• Heating & cooling: No heating or cooling details provided
• Interior features: One bedroom
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($799 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#47 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alaska Gateway School District (rural): math 10% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #43 of 53 in AK (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Southeast Fairbanks County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.05%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $17,856
• Equity at exit: $31,475

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $50,403
• Equity at exit: $48,507

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99780

• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $799 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $70,000 Active
17. 2021-07-29
    listed $69,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$767
• − Management: −$767
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $700
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$168
• After-tax cash flow: $1,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

A modest cabin with average condition, requiring moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Wood stove — Visible soot and ash
• Minor Electrical panel — Visible wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves durability and appearance
• Both Upgrade electrical panel — Ensures safety and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Wood stove · Visible soot and ash	Minor	$500–3,000
Electrical panel · Visible wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves durability and appearance ↑
• Both Upgrade electrical panel — Ensures safety and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alaska Gateway School District
• NCES district ID: 0200050
• Math proficiency: 10% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,303
• Composite: 12.73/100
• National rank: #14548
• State rank: #43 of 53 in AK

Livability — Tok

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #15385

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tok, AK
• Population (ZIP): 1,790

Population outlook (Southeast Fairbanks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,279 people
• By 2030: 6,022 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 5,658 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 5,521 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 5,938 · -5.4%
• By 2100: 6,752 · +7.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Native American 25% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Southeast Fairbanks

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $70,000 AKMLS
• 2021-07-29 Listed $69,500 AKMLS